Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Sarmiento Junin, 19% draw, 58% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 4.35, 5.26 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente Rivadavia at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuarezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16M. MartinezM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 24J. HerreraF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 7P. MagninF
- 20U. GimenezD
- 23E. GimenezM
- 10J. RenteriaM
- 9Diego ChurinF
- 11G. GonzalezF
- 5M. GarciaM
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 20A. RiepD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 13A. OsellaD
- 27D. CregoD
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 5T. BottariM
- 8L. BuccaM
- 19R. AtencioM
- 10M. FernandezF
- 43F. SartoriF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 7V. RamisF
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 2L. CostaD
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 11G. RiosM
- 42S. StuderD
- 55M. SalvoD
- 9A. ArceF
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
- L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Huracan30 July 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 4 February 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 May 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2019Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 19 May 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
- 13 March 2019Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Sarmiento JuninPrimera Nacional
The full Sarmiento Junin vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Independiente Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- J. Florentín91
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin beat Independiente Rivadavia 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente Rivadavia at 58% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Martinez 12' for Sarmiento Junin, M. Fernandez 31' for Independiente Rivadavia, J. Mavilla 37' for Sarmiento Junin. On expected goals it finished 0.55–1.54.