Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Velez Sarsfield, 17% draw, 21% Independiente — fair odds of 1.61, 5.88 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Velez Sarsfield at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarciaD
- 32T. SilveroD
- 16L. MagallanD
- 3E. GomezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 10D. ValdesM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 33F. Villalba
- 34A. BussoG
- 5C. BaezaM
- 2E. MammanaD
- 17A. VeronF
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 48L. FelerM
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 26K. LomonacoD
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 16M. Perez CurciM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 28M. GutierrezM
- 7S. MontielM
- 19M. AbaldoM
- 9G. AvalosF
- 1J. BlazquezG
- 8M. MezaF
- 3J. De IrastorzaD
- 20F. CruzM
- 18F. ValdezF
- 4S. AriasD
- 10L. CabralM
- 32D. MartinezM
- 14L. MillanM
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
- 31 January 2026Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 August 2025Velez Sarsfield 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2025Independiente 3–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 September 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 26 May 2024Independiente 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velez Sarsfield beat Independiente 1–0. The model had made a win for Velez Sarsfield its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goal: T. Aguirre 70' for Velez Sarsfield. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.40.