24 September 2026, 01:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle
Referee: Joseph Dickerson
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-0 Real Salt Lake.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 30% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Seattle Sounders at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders99%Draw1%Real Salt Lake0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

K. Kossa-Rienzi
10'
P. Arriola
41'
🔁A. Roldanout: S. Hawkins
46'
🔁K. Kossa-Rienziout: P. Kingston
46'
⚽D. Musovskiassist: P. Arriola
48'
P. Kingston
52'
S. Brunell
55'
57'
K. Henry
🔁S. Brunellout: H. Dotson
63'
🔁D. Musovskiout: J. Morris
63'
71'
🔁L. Moisaout: S. Lobjanidze
⚽A. Rusnakassist: P. Arriola
73'
78'
🔁M. Guilavoguiout: T. Booth
78'
🔁S. Solansout: Lineker Rodrigues
78'
🔁S. Spieringsout: C. Guske
🔁P. Arriolaout: C. Clark
82'
87'
D. Yedlin
88'
🔁N. Caliskanout: L. O'Gara

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

53%Possession47%
11Shots12
4On target2
7Corners6
0.91xG0.43

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Salt Lake0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26Andrew ThomasG
  • 85Kalani Kossa-RienziD
  • 16Alex RoldánD
  • 25Jackson RagenD
  • 5Nouhou ToloD
  • 37Snyder BrunellM
  • 7Cristian RoldánM
  • 90Sebastian GomezM
  • 11Albert RusnákM
  • 17Paul ArriolaM
  • 19Daniel MusovskiF
Substitutes
  • 39Stuart HawkinsD
  • 45Peter KingstonM
  • 31Hassani DotsonM
  • 13Jordan MorrisF
  • 8Caden ClarkM
  • 24Stefan FreiG
  • 28Yeimar GómezD
  • 35Antino LopezD
  • 4Ryan SailorD
Coach: Brian Schmetzer
Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 2DeAndre YedlinD
  • 26Philip QuintonD
  • 3Kobi HenryD
  • 11Dominik MarczukM
  • 6Stijn SpieringsM
  • 92Noel CaliskanM
  • 29Sam JunquaM
  • 34Luca MoisaF
  • 9Morgan GuilavoguiF
  • 22Sergi SolansF
Substitutes
  • 12Saba LobzhanidzeM
  • 25Colin GuskeM
  • 18Taylor BoothF
  • 70Lineker RodriguesF
  • 76Liam O'GaraM
  • 31Mason StajduharG
  • 39Aiden HezarkhaniF
  • 13Jason ShokalookF
Coach: Pablo Mastroeni

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

Seattle Sounders

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
  • D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
  • D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026

Real Salt Lake

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
  • L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
  • D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Seattle Sounders341210124446-246
9Real Salt Lake34136155352+145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

  • 1 March 2026Real Salt Lake 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 12 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 1 March 2025Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 30 May 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 16 May 2024Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake

Seattle Sounders

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans154

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Seattle Sounders beat Real Salt Lake 2–0. The model had made a win for Seattle Sounders its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Musovski 48' for Seattle Sounders, A. Rusnak 73' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 0.91–0.43.

How the call on Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake has moved

First published on 10 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Real Salt Lake's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Seattle Sounders win42%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Real Salt Lake win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.