Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Gent

The model makes it 49% Union St. Gilloise, 29% draw, 22% Gent — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 1.46, Gent 0.79.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Union St. Gilloise: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Union St. Gilloise's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Gent's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

Union St. Gilloise are top on 29 points from 11 games; Gent are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Genk.
Gent have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
Last 6 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Gent 0–0 Union St. Gilloise.

More Jupiler Pro League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent

43%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Union St. Gilloise win Draw Gent win

1–015%
1–113%
2–011%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
3–05%

Scores read Union St. Gilloise first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Union St. Gilloise at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Gent

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

W1-0Genk8 November 2026
W2-1away to SK Beveren31 October 2026
W5-2Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026

Gent

Jupiler Pro League

W1-0Kortrijk8 November 2026
L0-2away to Lommel United1 November 2026
W4-0Anderlecht25 October 2026
W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026

What these results say

Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
Gent scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Union St. Gilloise	11	9	2	0	30	7	+23	29
3	Gent	11	9	1	1	20	6	+14	28

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent

21 May 2026Gent 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
22 April 2026Union St. Gilloise 0–0 GentJupiler Pro League
6 December 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–1 GentJupiler Pro League
9 August 2025Gent 2–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
25 May 2025Union St. Gilloise 3–1 GentJupiler Pro League
5 April 2025Gent 0–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

The full Union St. Gilloise vs Gent record →

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Gent

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

R. Florucz50
R. Mofokeng42

Gent

GoalsAssists

I. Cisse40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union St. Gilloise a 39.3% chance of the title and Gent 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Union St. Gilloise Gent

1.2 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94

0.65 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.74

1.46 Model expected goals (this match) 0.79

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.79 for Gent. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.74 for Gent.

Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.16 against 6.99 for Gent.

How the model reaches 49% for Union St. Gilloise to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Union St. Gilloise to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Union St. Gilloise's ratings add 5 points and Gent's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level40%−3
Union St. Gilloise's ratings45%+5
Gent's ratings49%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Union St. GilloiseModelGent

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

39%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

19%

model, this match

10%

1 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Union St. GilloiseGent

11Matches11

9W 2D 0LRecord9W 1D 1L

30 2.7 per gameGoals scored20 1.8 per game

7 0.6 per gameGoals conceded6 0.5 per game

6 of 11Clean sheets6 of 11

1 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

–Penalties scored1 of 1

17 1.5 per gameYellow cards18 1.6 per game

2Red cards1

3-4-1-2 4×Usual shape3-4-2-1 10×

Union St. Gilloise at home · Gent away

6Played5

4W 2D 0LRecord3W 1D 1L

15–3Goals for – against8–4

4 of 6Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Union St. GilloiseGent

Union St. Gilloise are 1st after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Gent are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 11, Gent 11.

Union St. Gilloise scored 224749

Gent conceded 112102

Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gent have let in 2 there.

Gent scored 315217

Union St. Gilloise conceded 231120

Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Union St. Gilloise

at Lyon10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
at KV Mechelen13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 58%
vs Club Brugge KV20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%

Gent

at FC Thun10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 57%
vs St. Truiden13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
vs Brann17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.