Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec I Liga prediction

Our model says: Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Stal Mielec

The model makes it 48% Puszcza Niepołomice, 26% draw, 26% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.78, Stal Mielec 1.17.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Puszcza Niepołomice's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and Stal Mielec's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Puszcza Niepołomice are 16th on 14 points from 14 games; Stal Mielec are 11th on 19 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Puszcza Niepołomice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Miedz Legnica.
  • Stal Mielec are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ruch Chorzów.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Stal Mielec 1–4 Puszcza Niepołomice.

More Polish I Liga predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec

58%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Puszcza Niepołomice win Draw Stal Mielec win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–26%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Puszcza Niepołomice first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Puszcza Niepołomice at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec

Puszcza Niepołomice

I Liga

  • D1-1Miedz Legnica6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Stal Rzeszów2 November 2026
  • W2-1Lechia Gdansk24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • W2-0Ruch Chorzów8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 October 2026
  • D0-0Chrobry Głogów24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Puszcza Niepołomice.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414
11Stal Mielec145451927-819

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec

  • 11 July 2026Stal Mielec 1–4 Puszcza NiepołomiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 May 2026Stal Mielec 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 5 November 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 23 September 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceCup
  • 12 May 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 2–3 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
  • 10 November 2024Stal Mielec 2–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceEkstraklasa

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stal Mielec (11th, with Puszcza Niepołomice 16th), while our numbers lean to Puszcza Niepołomice. Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.51 in attack and 1.70 in defence, Stal Mielec 0.57 and 2.15 (lower is better in defence), so Puszcza Niepołomice have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 0.2% chance of the title and Stal Mielec 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Puszcza Niepołomice Stal Mielec
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
1.7 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.15
1.78 Model expected goals (this match) 1.17

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Puszcza Niepołomice the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.17 for Stal Mielec. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.15 for Stal Mielec.

Puszcza Niepołomice carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.19 for Stal Mielec. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 48% for Puszcza Niepołomice to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Puszcza Niepołomice to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings change nothing and Stal Mielec's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings45%±0
  5. Stal Mielec's ratings48%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Puszcza NiepołomiceStal Mielec
14Matches14
4W 2D 8LRecord5W 4D 5L
16 1.1 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
20 1.4 per gameGoals conceded27 1.9 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
6 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
38 2.7 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-4-1-1 1×

Puszcza Niepołomice at home · Stal Mielec away

8Played6
3W 1D 4LRecord2W 0D 4L
9–8Goals for – against4–17
1 of 8Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Puszcza Niepołomice 14, Stal Mielec 14.

Puszcza Niepołomice scored 205334
Stal Mielec conceded 324495

Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 4 there.

Stal Mielec scored 623341
Puszcza Niepołomice conceded 452116

Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Puszcza Niepołomice

  • at Ruch Chorzów6 Dec · I Ligawin 23%
  • at Polonia Warszawa12 Dec · I Ligawin 22%
  • vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki6 Feb · I Ligawin 42%
  • at Odra Opole13 Feb · I Ligawin 35%

Stal Mielec

  • vs Arka Gdynia4 Dec · I Ligawin 39%
  • vs Unia Skierniewice12 Dec · I Ligawin 47%
  • at Podbeskidzie6 Feb · I Ligawin 28%
  • vs Stal Rzeszów13 Feb · I Ligawin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.