Universidad Catolica
vs
Huachipato
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica 2–0 Huachipato
The model makes it 59% Universidad Catolica, 23% draw, 18% Huachipato — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 2.19, Huachipato 0.99.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Universidad Catolica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 49 points from 27 games; Huachipato are 11th on 33 points from 26 games — Primera División.
- Universidad Catolica are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Deportes Limache.
- Huachipato are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union La Calera.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad Catolica 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Huachipato 0–3 Universidad Catolica.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato
Has the model earned this number?
Universidad Catolica at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- W3-0Deportes Limache8 November 2026
- W1-0Universidad de Chile1 November 2026
- D1-1Audax Italiano28 October 2026
- L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
Huachipato
Primera División
- L0-1away to Union La Calera8 November 2026
- D0-0Deportes La Serena1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Audax Italiano23 October 2026
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Huachipato had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 49 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato
- 31 May 2026Huachipato 0–3 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 20 January 2026Huachipato 2–4 Universidad CatolicaSuper Cup
- 29 November 2025Huachipato 0–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 14 June 2025Universidad Catolica 1–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 25 August 2024Universidad Catolica 4–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 30 March 2024Huachipato 0–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Huachipato
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri262
- J. Giani74
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Universidad Catolica against 0.99 for Huachipato. Universidad Catolica's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.61 for Huachipato.
How the model reaches 59% for Universidad Catolica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Universidad Catolica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universidad Catolica's ratings add 8 points and Huachipato's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Universidad Catolica's ratings53%+8
- Huachipato's ratings59%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica at home · Huachipato away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad Catolica 27, Huachipato 26.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Huachipato have let in 8 there.
Huachipato score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Universidad Catolica have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica
- at Universidad de Concepcion6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 52%
Huachipato
- vs Nublense6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.