HNK Gorica
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Gorica 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 16% HNK Gorica, 22% draw, 62% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 0.84, Dinamo Zagreb 2.17.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. HNK Gorica's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and Dinamo Zagreb's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- HNK Gorica are bottom on 7 points from 13 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games — HNL.
- HNK Gorica have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to NK Slaven Belupo.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to NK Varazdin.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 HNK Gorica.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Zagreb at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Gorica
HNL
- L3-5NK Slaven Belupo7 November 2026
- L0-5away to HNK Hajduk Split31 October 2026
- D0-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb24 October 2026
- D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL
- W3-1away to NK Varazdin8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Rudes31 October 2026
- W2-1HNK Rijeka27 October 2026
- W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 5 September 2026Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 2 May 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 8 April 2026HNK Gorica 3–6 Dinamo ZagrebCup
- 1 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 1 December 2025HNK Gorica 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–2 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo136
- L. Stojković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Gorica a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 60.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 2.17 for Dinamo Zagreb. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.2 for Dinamo Zagreb.
How the model reaches 62% for Dinamo Zagreb to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Zagreb to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, HNK Gorica's ratings add 15 points and Dinamo Zagreb's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- HNK Gorica's ratings44%+15
- Dinamo Zagreb's ratings62%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
HNK Gorica at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
HNK GoricaDinamo Zagreb
HNK Gorica are 10th after 13 HNL matches (between 8th and 10th so far); Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd after 12 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Gorica 13, Dinamo Zagreb 12.
HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 1 there.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); HNK Gorica have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
HNK Gorica
- at NK Varazdin6 Dec · HNLwin 18%
- vs Istra 196112 Dec · HNLwin 30%
- at Rudes19 Dec · HNLwin 24%
- vs NK Osijek23 Jan · HNLwin 33%
Dinamo Zagreb
- at HNK Rijeka3 Dec · HNLwin 47%
- vs NK Osijek6 Dec · HNLwin 68%
- at Rennes10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.