Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Vitoria, 28% draw, 31% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vitoria at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 95CaíqueM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 2E. BrítezD
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 23FabrícioF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 23FágnerD
- 43João MarceloD
- 34JonathanD
- 27G. RojasD
- 8GersonM
- 5Zé LucasM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 20Wesley GassovaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 12WilliamD
- 94WandersonF
- 6M. ViñaD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
Form going into Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
- 1 April 2026Cruzeiro 3–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 1 November 2025Cruzeiro 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 12 June 2025Vitoria 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 19 August 2024Vitoria 2–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 28 April 2024Cruzeiro 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Cruzeiro
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 3–1 at Vitoria. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitoria at 41% and given a win for Cruzeiro 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 39' for Vitoria, Keny arroyo 46' for Cruzeiro, Lucas Villalba 66' for Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira 90+7' for Cruzeiro.
How the call on Vitoria v Cruzeiro has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Vitoria's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Vitoria win41%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cruzeiro win31%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.