Gremio vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Gremio, 29% draw, 42% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Palmeiras
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 82WallaceD
- 18João PedroM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 54Pedro GabrielM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 77Jovane CabralF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 43Luis EduardoD
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 11J. AriasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 42J. LópezM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 39HeittorF
- 12KhellvenD
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 32E. MartínezM
- 18MaurícioM
Form going into Gremio vs Palmeiras
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Palmeiras
- 3 April 2026Palmeiras 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 26 November 2025Gremio 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 July 2025Palmeiras 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 9 November 2024Palmeiras 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 4 July 2024Gremio 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Palmeiras
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio and Palmeiras drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Palmeiras at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Gremio v Palmeiras has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Gremio's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Gremio win29%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +3
- Palmeiras win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.