Arsenal
vs
Manchester City
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Arsenal 1–0 Manchester City
The model makes it 47% Arsenal, 27% draw, 26% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.68, Manchester City 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Arsenal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Arsenal's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Manchester City's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Arsenal are top on 27 points from 10 games; Manchester City are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Hull City.
- Manchester City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Nottingham Forest.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Arsenal 3–0 Manchester City.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arsenal vs Manchester City
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arsenal vs Manchester City
Arsenal
Premier League
- W1-0Hull City7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Liverpool1 November 2026
- W2-0Everton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
Manchester City
Premier League
- L1-3away to Nottingham Forest7 November 2026
- L0-1Brighton31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Aston Villa24 October 2026
- W3-2Ipswich17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won every one of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Manchester City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Manchester City
Arsenal and Manchester City have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 3–0 on 16 Aug 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 |
| Manchester City | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 16 Aug 2026
Community ShieldArsenal 3–0 Manchester City - 19 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueManchester City 2–1 Arsenal - 22 Mar 2026
League CupArsenal 0–2 Manchester City - 21 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueArsenal 1–1 Manchester City - 2 Feb 2025
Premier LeagueArsenal 5–1 Manchester City - 22 Sep 2024
Premier LeagueManchester City 2–2 Arsenal
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Manchester City's attack rates 12% above Arsenal's, and Arsenal concede 32% fewer than Manchester City. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.38 | 0.52 |
| Manchester City | 1.54 | 0.76 |
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Manchester City
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arsenal a 62.6% chance of the title and Manchester City 15.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Arsenal against 1.10 for Manchester City. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.54/0.76 for Manchester City.
How the model reaches 47% for Arsenal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arsenal to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arsenal's ratings add 2 points and Manchester City's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Arsenal's ratings42%+2
- Manchester City's ratings47%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Arsenal at home · Manchester City away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ArsenalManchester City
Arsenal are 1st after 10 Premier League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Manchester City are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 7th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal 10, Manchester City 10.
Manchester City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Arsenal have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arsenal
- at Brentford2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Tottenham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Real Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
Manchester City
- vs Leeds2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Brentford5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Barcelona8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.