Regular Season - 15 · 29 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Thun vs FC St. Gallen Super League prediction

Stockhorn Arena, Thun

Our model says: FC Thun 1–2 FC St. Gallen

The model makes it 36% FC Thun, 23% draw, 41% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 2.78, 4.35 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FC Thun 1.88, FC St. Gallen 2.05.

Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to FC St. Gallen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Key facts

FC Thun are 8th on 14 points from 13 games; FC St. Gallen are 4th on 22 points from 13 games — Super League.
FC Thun have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to FC Basel 1893.
FC St. Gallen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to FC Lugano.
Last 6 meetings: FC Thun 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended FC St. Gallen 3–4 FC Thun.

More Swiss Super League predictions

All Swiss Super League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Thun vs FC St. Gallen

74%

Both teams to score

75%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Thun win Draw FC St. Gallen win

1–18%
1–28%
2–27%
2–17%
1–35%
2–35%
3–25%

Scores read FC Thun first; the other scorelines share the remaining 55%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Gallen at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Thun vs FC St. Gallen

FC Thun

Super League

D3-3FC Basel 18938 November 2026
W5-4away to Lausanne1 November 2026
L2-3FC Lugano25 October 2026
L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026

FC St. Gallen

Super League

W5-0FC Lugano8 November 2026
W2-1Servette FC31 October 2026
L0-2away to BSC Young Boys24 October 2026
W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026

What these results say

FC Thun scored in every one of these 5 matches.
FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
FC St. Gallen won 4 of these 5 matches.
FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	27	37	-10	14
4	FC St. Gallen	13	7	1	5	24	22	+2	22

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Thun vs FC St. Gallen

30 August 2026FC St. Gallen 3–4 FC ThunSuper League
17 May 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC ThunSuper League
5 March 2026FC Thun 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
13 December 2025FC Thun 0–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
4 October 2025FC St. Gallen 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
25 June 2022FC Thun 3–3 FC St. GallenFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Thun and FC St. Gallen

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

B. Labeau61

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

L. Görtler42
A. Hunziker40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Thun a 0% chance of the title and FC St. Gallen 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Thun FC St. Gallen

0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.72

1.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.23

1.88 Model expected goals (this match) 2.05

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Thun against 2.05 for FC St. Gallen. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.23 for FC St. Gallen.

FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.58 for FC St. Gallen. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for FC St. Gallen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC St. Gallen to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, FC Thun's ratings add 5 points and FC St. Gallen's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 41%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage32%−5
FC Thun's ratings37%+5
FC St. Gallen's ratings41%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FC ThunModelFC St. Gallen

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

91%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

55%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

74%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FC ThunFC St. Gallen

13Matches13

4W 2D 7LRecord7W 1D 5L

27 2.1 per gameGoals scored24 1.8 per game

37 2.8 per gameGoals conceded22 1.7 per game

1 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13

3 of 13Failed to score3 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3

28 2.2 per gameYellow cards22 1.7 per game

2Red cards0

4-4-2 9×Usual shape3-1-4-2 9×

FC Thun at home · FC St. Gallen away

6Played6

0W 2D 4LRecord3W 0D 3L

7–17Goals for – against9–11

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FC ThunFC St. Gallen

FC Thun are 8th after 13 Super League matches (between 1st and 10th so far); FC St. Gallen are 4th after 13 (between 2nd and 6th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League matches this season: FC Thun 13, FC St. Gallen 13.

FC Thun scored 424645

FC St. Gallen conceded 415822

FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC St. Gallen have let in 8 there.

FC St. Gallen scored 413385

FC Thun conceded 655868

FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); FC Thun have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Thun

vs FC Luzern5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 45%
vs Gent10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
at FC Lugano13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 15%

FC St. Gallen

vs Grasshoppers6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 62%
vs FC Vaduz12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 54%
at Lausanne19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 48%
at FC Luzern17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.