Elche
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Elche 0–1 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 24% Elche, 26% draw, 50% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Elche 1.02, Atletico Madrid 1.73.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Elche's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Atletico Madrid's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Elche are 18th on 10 points from 12 games; Atletico Madrid are 3rd on 28 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Real Betis.
- Atletico Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Barcelona.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Elche 3–2 Atletico Madrid.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Elche
La Liga
- L0-2Real Betis8 November 2026
- L0-1Valencia1 November 2026
- W3-0away to Rayo Vallecano24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
Atletico Madrid
La Liga
- L1-2Barcelona8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Levante31 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo La Coruna24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Espanyol17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
What these results say
- Elche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Elche had two goals or fewer.
- Atletico Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Elche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Atletico Madrid
Chance to finish in the top four · 93% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Elche
Atletico Madrid and Elche have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atletico Madrid has won 3 of them to Elche's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Elche won the last one 3–2 on 22 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 |
| Elche | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Apr 2026
La LigaElche 3–2 Atletico Madrid - 23 Aug 2025
La LigaAtletico Madrid 1–1 Elche - 15 Jan 2025
Copa del ReyElche 0–4 Atletico Madrid - 14 May 2023
La LigaElche 1–0 Atletico Madrid - 29 Dec 2022
La LigaAtletico Madrid 2–0 Elche - 11 May 2022
La LigaElche 0–2 Atletico Madrid
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Madrid's attack rates 50% above Elche's, and Atletico Madrid concede 33% fewer than Elche. That gives Atletico Madrid the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| Elche | 0.90 | 1.04 |
Leading scorers: Elche and Atletico Madrid
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Elche a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Madrid 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Elche against 1.73 for Atletico Madrid. Elche's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.7 for Atletico Madrid.
How the model reaches 50% for Atletico Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Madrid to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Elche's ratings add 10 points and Atletico Madrid's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Elche's ratings39%+10
- Atletico Madrid's ratings50%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Elche at home · Atletico Madrid away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ElcheAtletico Madrid
Elche are 18th after 12 La Liga matches (between 7th and 20th so far); Atletico Madrid are 3rd after 12 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Elche 12, Atletico Madrid 12.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 3 there.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Elche have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Elche
- at Osasuna6 Dec · La Ligawin 35%
- vs Sevilla13 Dec · La Ligawin 43%
- at Alaves20 Dec · La Ligawin 30%
- at Malaga3 Jan · La Ligawin 40%
Atletico Madrid
- at Barcelona2 Dec · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Real Betis6 Dec · La Ligawin 51%
- at PSV Eindhoven9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.