Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 11:30 UTC

Udinese vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction

Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine

Our model says: Udinese 1–2 Fiorentina

The model makes it 29% Udinese, 26% draw, 45% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Udinese 1.27, Fiorentina 1.73.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.

Edge to Fiorentina: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Udinese's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Fiorentina's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.

Key facts

Udinese are bottom on 5 points from 11 games; Fiorentina are 15th on 9 points from 11 games — Serie A.
Udinese have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Venezia.
Fiorentina are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Juventus.
Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2026, ended Udinese 3–0 Fiorentina.

More Serie A predictions

All Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Udinese vs Fiorentina

60%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Udinese win Draw Fiorentina win

1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
0–27%
2–17%
2–26%
1–06%

Scores read Udinese first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fiorentina at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Udinese vs Fiorentina

Udinese

Serie A

L1-2away to Venezia6 November 2026
L2-5AS Roma31 October 2026
D0-0away to Parma28 October 2026
L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
L0-3Lecce18 October 2026

Fiorentina

Serie A

D2-2Juventus8 November 2026
W4-2away to Sassuolo2 November 2026
D2-2Atalanta29 October 2026
L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
L1-3Como18 October 2026

What these results say

Udinese did not win any of these 5 matches.
Udinese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Fiorentina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12	25	-13	5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17	25	-8	9

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Udinese

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today

Win 45%

Draw 56%

Defeat 62%

Fiorentina

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today

Win 4%

Draw 7%

Defeat 8%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Udinese

Fiorentina and Udinese have met 6 times in the records we hold, Fiorentina has won 3 of them to Udinese's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Udinese won the last one 3–0 on 2 Mar 2026.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Fiorentina	3	1	2	13	10
Udinese	2	1	3	10	13

Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

2 Mar 2026
Serie AUdinese 3–0 Fiorentina
21 Dec 2025
Serie AFiorentina 5–1 Udinese
25 May 2025
Serie AUdinese 2–3 Fiorentina
23 Dec 2024
Serie AFiorentina 1–2 Udinese
14 Jan 2024
Serie AFiorentina 2–2 Udinese
24 Sep 2023
Serie AUdinese 0–2 Fiorentina

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Fiorentina's attack rates 36% above Udinese's, and Fiorentina concede 9% fewer than Udinese. That gives Fiorentina the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Fiorentina	1.17	1.05
Udinese	0.86	1.15

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Udinese and Fiorentina

Udinese

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Fiorentina

GoalsAssists

Mateo Pellegrino40
Franco Mastantuono40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Udinese Fiorentina

0.86 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.17

1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.05

1.27 Model expected goals (this match) 1.73

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Udinese against 1.73 for Fiorentina. Udinese's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/1.05 for Fiorentina.

How the model reaches 45% for Fiorentina to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fiorentina to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Udinese's ratings add 5 points and Fiorentina's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 45%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage34%−2
Udinese's ratings39%+5
Fiorentina's ratings45%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

UdineseModelFiorentina

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

58%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

35%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

60%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

UdineseFiorentina

11Matches11

1W 2D 8LRecord2W 3D 6L

12 1.1 per gameGoals scored17 1.5 per game

25 2.3 per gameGoals conceded25 2.3 per game

1 of 11Clean sheets0 of 11

4 of 11Failed to score2 of 11

–Penalties scored–

18 1.6 per gameYellow cards24 2.2 per game

3-4-2-1 11×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Udinese at home · Fiorentina away

6Played5

0W 1D 5LRecord2W 0D 3L

4–14Goals for – against10–12

0 of 6Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

UdineseFiorentina

Udinese are 20th after 11 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 20th so far); Fiorentina are 15th after 11 (between 15th and 20th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Udinese 11, Fiorentina 11.

Udinese scored 124202

Fiorentina conceded 255365

Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Fiorentina have let in 5 there.

Fiorentina scored 121632

Udinese conceded 317563

Fiorentina score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Udinese have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Udinese

at Juventus6 Dec · Serie Awin 17%
vs Frosinone11 Dec · Serie Awin 24%
at Genoa20 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
vs Atalanta3 Jan · Serie Awin 26%

Fiorentina

vs Cagliari7 Dec · Serie Awin 46%
at Parma13 Dec · Serie Awin 43%
vs Bologna20 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
vs Lazio2 Jan · Serie Awin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.