Dunav Ruse
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Dunav Ruse 0–1 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 19% Dunav Ruse, 25% draw, 56% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 5.26, 4.00 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (11%).
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 0.88, CSKA Sofia 1.88.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: CSKA Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Dunav Ruse's rating is built from 14 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA Sofia's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Dunav Ruse are 10th on 12 points from 14 games; CSKA Sofia are top on 34 points from 14 games — First League.
- Dunav Ruse have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Botev Plovdiv.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Levski Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: CSKA Sofia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended CSKA Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
CSKA Sofia at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia
Dunav Ruse
First League
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv6 November 2026
- L0-1Levski Sofia31 October 2026
- W2-0Spartak Varna24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
CSKA Sofia
First League
- W3-0away to Levski Sofia8 November 2026
- D0-0Slavia Sofia31 October 2026
- W2-0Ludogorets26 October 2026
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia
- 2 August 2026CSKA Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 31 January 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 14 December 2019CSKA Sofia 4–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 25 August 2019Dunav Ruse 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 24 November 2018Dunav Ruse 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 August 2018CSKA Sofia 3–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
Leading scorers: Dunav Ruse and CSKA Sofia
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunav Ruse a 0% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 39.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 1.88 for CSKA Sofia. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.1 for CSKA Sofia.
How the model reaches 56% for CSKA Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for CSKA Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Dunav Ruse's ratings add 13 points and CSKA Sofia's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Dunav Ruse's ratings44%+13
- CSKA Sofia's ratings56%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dunav Ruse at home · CSKA Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Dunav RuseCSKA Sofia
Dunav Ruse are 10th after 14 First League matches (between 9th and 14th so far); CSKA Sofia are 1st after 14 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Dunav Ruse 14, CSKA Sofia 14.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dunav Ruse have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dunav Ruse
- at Arda Kardzhali5 Dec · First Leaguewin 29%
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 Feb · First Leaguewin 42%
- vs Cherno More Varna20 Feb · First Leaguewin 41%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 36%
CSKA Sofia
- vs Septemvri Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 73%
- at KuPS10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
- vs FC Thun17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 66%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.