Serie A predictions

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 14:00 UTC Lazio vs Lecce — model 59% / 25% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.00 · 6.25. One-sided: Lazio
• 14:00 UTC Como vs Cagliari — model 54% / 28% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.57 · 5.56. One-sided: Como
• 17:00 UTC Parma vs AS Roma — model 13% / 23% / 64%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.69 · 4.35 · 1.56. One-sided: AS Roma
• 19:45 UTC Napoli vs Torino — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. One-sided: Napoli

Sunday 22 November — 5 matches

• 11:30 UTC Juventus vs Venezia — model 59% / 26% / 15%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.69 · 3.85 · 6.67. One-sided: Juventus
• 14:00 UTC Sassuolo vs Genoa — model 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.45 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Bologna vs Udinese — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35. Edge: Bologna
• 17:00 UTC AC Milan vs Frosinone — model 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.00 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 19:45 UTC Atalanta vs Inter — model 22% / 24% / 54%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.55 · 4.17 · 1.85. One-sided: Inter

Monday 23 November — 1 match

• 19:45 UTC Monza vs Fiorentina — model 30% / 24% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.17 · 2.17. Edge: Fiorentina

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 19:45 UTC Venezia vs Bologna — model 24% / 29% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.45 · 2.13. One-sided: Bologna

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

• 14:00 UTC Frosinone vs Parma — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. One-sided: Frosinone
• 17:00 UTC Torino vs Lazio — model 25% / 27% / 48%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.70 · 2.08. Edge: Lazio
• 19:45 UTC Inter vs Genoa — model 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.76 · 7.14. One-sided: Inter

Sunday 29 November — 4 matches

• 11:30 UTC Udinese vs Fiorentina — model 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.85 · 2.22. Edge: Fiorentina
• 14:00 UTC Sassuolo vs Napoli — model 21% / 24% / 55%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.17 · 1.82. One-sided: Napoli
• 17:00 UTC AS Roma vs Monza — model 76% / 15% / 9%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.32 · 6.67 · 11.11. One-sided: AS Roma
• 19:45 UTC Como vs Juventus — model 39% / 31% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.23 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 10 matches. Across all 110 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 60% of results.

• Venezia 2–1 Udinese — the model said 30% / 31% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Cagliari 1–0 Frosinone — the model said 23% / 25% / 52%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Torino 1–1 Lecce — the model said 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Parma 1–2 Bologna — the model said 27% / 32% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• AS Roma 3–0 Sassuolo — the model said 72% / 17% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Napoli 1–1 Lazio — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Genoa 1–2 AC Milan — the model said 24% / 29% / 47%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Monza 0–1 Atalanta — the model said 29% / 23% / 48%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Inter 2–0 Como — the model said 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Fiorentina 2–2 Juventus — the model said 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

Serie A so far

Top of the table

• 1. Lazio — 29 pts from 11 (9W 2D 0L, goals 25–9)
• 2. Inter — 28 pts from 11 (9W 1D 1L, goals 28–13)
• 3. AS Roma — 27 pts from 11 (8W 3D 0L, goals 31–10)
• 4. AC Milan — 24 pts from 11 (7W 3D 1L, goals 23–13)
• 5. Como — 23 pts from 11 (7W 2D 2L, goals 18–10)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 270 matches left: Inter 44.5%, AS Roma 42.6%, Lazio 7%.

Leading scorers: Gustavo Varela (Monza) 9 goals, D. Malen (AS Roma) 8 goals, A. Raimondo (Frosinone) 8 goals.