Fortuna Sittard
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Heerenveen
The model makes it 34% Fortuna Sittard, 27% draw, 39% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.38, Heerenveen 1.54.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,325 settled matches.
Edge to Heerenveen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Fortuna Sittard's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Heerenveen's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 20 points from 12 games; Heerenveen are 6th on 21 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Telstar.
- Heerenveen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-3 win at home to Feyenoord.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Heerenveen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- D2-2Telstar7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Feyenoord31 October 2026
- W1-0Excelsior25 October 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- W5-3Feyenoord8 November 2026
- W1-0NEC Nijmegen31 October 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag24 October 2026
- W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Heerenveen won the last one 2–1 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 |
| Heerenveen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard - 8 Nov 2025
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 2–0 Heerenveen - 1 Feb 2025
EredivisieHeerenveen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard - 2 Nov 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 3–0 Heerenveen - 3 Feb 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 3–3 Heerenveen - 25 Nov 2023
EredivisieHeerenveen 3–0 Fortuna Sittard
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Heerenveen's attack rates 21% above Fortuna Sittard's, and Heerenveen concede 12% fewer than Fortuna Sittard. That gives Heerenveen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.76 | 1.11 |
| Heerenveen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Sittard a 0% chance of the title and Heerenveen 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.54 for Heerenveen. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.98 for Heerenveen.
How the model reaches 39% for Heerenveen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Heerenveen to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fortuna Sittard's ratings add 4 points and Heerenveen's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Fortuna Sittard's ratings35%+4
- Heerenveen's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fortuna Sittard at home · Heerenveen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Fortuna SittardHeerenveen
Fortuna Sittard are 7th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Heerenveen are 6th after 12 (between 5th and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Fortuna Sittard 12, Heerenveen 12.
Fortuna Sittard score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Heerenveen have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Sittard
- vs PEC Zwolle5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 52%
- at Utrecht12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 51%
- at Twente8 Jan · Eredivisiewin 15%
Heerenveen
- vs Cambuur6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 53%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Utrecht19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 43%
- at AZ Alkmaar9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.