Feyenoord
vs
Ajax
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Feyenoord 2–1 Ajax
The model makes it 42% Feyenoord, 25% draw, 33% Ajax — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Feyenoord 1.80, Ajax 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Feyenoord's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Ajax's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Feyenoord are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games; Ajax are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Feyenoord are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to Heerenveen.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Twente.
- Last 6 meetings: Ajax 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Feyenoord 1–1 Ajax.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feyenoord vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
Feyenoord at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Feyenoord vs Ajax
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
- L3-5away to Heerenveen8 November 2026
- D1-1Fortuna Sittard31 October 2026
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
Ajax
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Twente8 November 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sparta Rotterdam25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Groningen18 October 2026
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
What these results say
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Feyenoord.
- Ajax went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Ajax
- 22 March 2026Feyenoord 1–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 14 December 2025Ajax 2–0 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 2 February 2025Ajax 2–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 30 October 2024Feyenoord 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 7 April 2024Feyenoord 6–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 27 September 2023Ajax 0–4 FeyenoordEredivisie
Leading scorers: Feyenoord and Ajax
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- A. Hadj-Moussa72
- Nacho Ferri63
- G. Zechiël54
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feyenoord a 15.3% chance of the title and Ajax 13.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Feyenoord against 1.52 for Ajax. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.79 for Ajax.
How the model reaches 42% for Feyenoord to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Feyenoord to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Feyenoord's ratings add 1 point and Ajax's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Feyenoord's ratings44%+1
- Ajax's ratings42%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Feyenoord at home · Ajax away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FeyenoordAjax
Feyenoord are 2nd after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Ajax are 3rd after 12 (between 2nd and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Feyenoord 12, Ajax 12.
Ajax score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Feyenoord have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Feyenoord
- at Willem II5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 79%
- at Viking8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- at Groningen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 50%
Ajax
- vs Utrecht6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 67%
- at St. Truiden10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
- vs Cambuur13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 65%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.