Valencia
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Valencia 1–0 Osasuna
The model makes it 44% Valencia, 29% draw, 27% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Valencia 1.46, Osasuna 1.03.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Valencia's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Osasuna's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Valencia are 19th on 9 points from 12 games; Osasuna are 16th on 12 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Real Madrid.
- Osasuna are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Athletic Club.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Valencia 1–0 Osasuna.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valencia vs Osasuna
Has the model earned this number?
Valencia at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valencia vs Osasuna
Valencia
La Liga
- L0-3Real Madrid7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Elche1 November 2026
- L1-2Villarreal24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
Osasuna
La Liga
- D1-1Athletic Club7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Deportivo La Coruna2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sevilla26 October 2026
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
What these results say
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Valencia
Osasuna and Valencia have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Valencia won the last one 1–0 on 1 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Valencia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Mar 2026
La LigaValencia 1–0 Osasuna - 24 Aug 2025
La LigaOsasuna 1–0 Valencia - 2 Mar 2025
La LigaOsasuna 3–3 Valencia - 24 Sep 2024
La LigaValencia 0–0 Osasuna - 15 Apr 2024
La LigaOsasuna 0–1 Valencia - 27 Aug 2023
La LigaValencia 1–2 Osasuna
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Osasuna's attack rates 8% above Valencia's, and Valencia concede 14% fewer than Osasuna. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Valencia and Osasuna
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Osasuna (16th, with Valencia 19th), while our numbers lean to Valencia. Valencia rate 0.76 in attack and 1.02 in defence, Osasuna 0.82 and 1.19 (lower is better in defence), so Valencia have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valencia the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Valencia against 1.03 for Osasuna. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.19 for Osasuna.
How the model reaches 44% for Valencia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Valencia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Valencia's ratings change nothing and Osasuna's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Valencia's ratings42%±0
- Osasuna's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Valencia at home · Osasuna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ValenciaOsasuna
Valencia are 19th after 12 La Liga matches (between 11th and 20th so far); Osasuna are 16th after 12 (between 4th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Valencia 12, Osasuna 12.
Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Valencia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valencia
- at Getafe6 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
- at Atletico Madrid13 Dec · La Ligawin 12%
- vs Espanyol20 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- at Levante3 Jan · La Ligawin 25%
Osasuna
- vs Elche6 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- at Real Madrid13 Dec · La Ligawin 6%
- vs Villarreal20 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
- at Real Sociedad3 Jan · La Ligawin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.