HNL

1. HNK Hajduk Split — 29 points from 13 played (9 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 27 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +16. Form, oldest first: W W D W W.
2. Dinamo Zagreb — 25 points from 12 played (8 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 28 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: L W W L W.
3. NK Osijek — 20 points from 13 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 22 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
4. Istra 1961 — 19 points from 13 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 24 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
5. NK Varazdin — 19 points from 13 played (5 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 17 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W L L D L.
6. HNK Rijeka — 18 points from 12 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W L D L.
7. NK Slaven Belupo — 16 points from 13 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 19 scored, 28 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: W L W L W.
8. Rudes — 16 points from 13 played (5 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 16 scored, 27 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: W L W W W.
9. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — 11 points from 13 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost), 14 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L W D L L.
10. HNK Gorica — 7 points from 13 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost), 10 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -15. Form, oldest first: L D D L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-12, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 8 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Rudes — bottom-three risk down 0.4, to 50.1%.
• HNK Hajduk Split — title chance down 0.2, to 38%.
• Dinamo Zagreb — title chance up 0.1, to 60.6%.
• HNK Rijeka — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 4.6%.
• NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 78.9%.

Season projection

Every one of the 116 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-11-12, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Dinamo Zagreb — projected to finish on 76.2 points, from 25 after 12 played. Wins it 60.6% (up 0.1), finishes top four 99.6%, bottom one 0%.
2. HNK Hajduk Split — projected to finish on 72.9 points, from 29 after 13 played. Wins it 38% (down 0.2), finishes top four 99.4%, bottom one 0%.
3. HNK Rijeka — projected to finish on 54.2 points, from 18 after 12 played. Wins it 0.5%, finishes top four 59.5%, bottom one 0.3%.
4. NK Varazdin — projected to finish on 52.4 points, from 19 after 13 played. Wins it 0.3%, finishes top four 49.4%, bottom one 0.3%.
5. Istra 1961 — projected to finish on 51.2 points, from 19 after 13 played. Wins it 0.3%, finishes top four 43.8%, bottom one 0.3%.
6. NK Osijek — projected to finish on 48.2 points, from 20 after 13 played. Wins it 0.2%, finishes top four 28%, bottom one 0.6%.
7. NK Slaven Belupo — projected to finish on 42.7 points, from 16 after 13 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 11.1%, bottom one 5.2%.
8. Rudes — projected to finish on 41.4 points, from 16 after 13 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 7.6%, bottom one 7%.
9. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — projected to finish on 35.3 points, from 11 after 13 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.4%, bottom one 17.5%.
10. HNK Gorica — projected to finish on 27.8 points, from 7 after 13 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom one 69.1%.

Top scorers

1. D. Beljo (Dinamo Zagreb) — 13 goals, 6 assists.
2. E. Frederiksen (Istra 1961) — 11 goals, 5 assists.
3. I. Nestorovski (NK Slaven Belupo) — 9 goals, 2 assists.
4. A. León (NK Osijek) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
5. L. Mamić (NK Varazdin) — 6 goals.
6. T. Fruk (HNK Rijeka) — 5 goals, 4 assists.
7. H. Jaganjac (Istra 1961) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
8. M. Šego (HNK Hajduk Split) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
9. N. Omerović (NK Osijek) — 5 goals.
10. D. Adu-Adjei (HNK Rijeka) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
11. S. Vignato (HNK Rijeka) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
12. B. Bogojević (HNK Gorica) — 4 goals.
13. D. Ahmeti (Istra 1961) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
14. I. Canjuga (NK Varazdin) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
15. A. Sanyang (HNK Hajduk Split) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
16. D. Vuković (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
17. J. Mitrović (NK Slaven Belupo) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
18. L. Banovec (NK Slaven Belupo) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. L. Stojković (Dinamo Zagreb) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
20. Carlos Martín (HNK Hajduk Split) — 3 goals, 1 assist.