Croatian HNL predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split — model 22% / 28% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.57 · 2.00. One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split
17:00 UTC Rudes vs NK Varazdin — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961 — model 66% / 20% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 5.00 · 7.14. One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb
17:00 UTC HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica — model 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.79 · 3.85 · 5.56. Edge: HNK Rijeka

Monday 23 November — 1 match

17:00 UTC NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 1 match

17:00 UTC Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
17:00 UTC NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb — model 16% / 22% / 62%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.55 · 1.61. One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb
17:00 UTC HNK Hajduk Split vs Rudes — model 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.69. One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 5 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 64 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 59% of results.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 Rudes — the model said 46% / 27% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
HNK Gorica 3–5 NK Slaven Belupo — the model said 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Istra 1961 3–1 HNK Rijeka — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
NK Osijek 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split — the model said 26% / 28% / 46%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
NK Varazdin 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb — the model said 28% / 29% / 43%, most likely 0-1: result correct.

Croatian HNL so far

Top of the table

1. HNK Hajduk Split — 29 pts from 13 (9W 2D 2L, goals 27–11)
2. Dinamo Zagreb — 25 pts from 12 (8W 1D 3L, goals 28–15)
3. NK Osijek — 20 pts from 13 (6W 2D 5L, goals 22–18)
4. Istra 1961 — 19 pts from 13 (5W 4D 4L, goals 24–19)
5. NK Varazdin — 19 pts from 13 (5W 4D 4L, goals 17–14)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 116 matches left: Dinamo Zagreb 60.6%, HNK Hajduk Split 38%, HNK Rijeka 0.5%.

Leading scorers: D. Beljo (Dinamo Zagreb) 13 goals, E. Frederiksen (Istra 1961) 11 goals, I. Nestorovski (NK Slaven Belupo) 9 goals.