12 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki Finnish Premier League prediction & result

OTC Stadion, Oulu
Referee: Antti Munukka
Full time3 – 4

Final score: AC Oulu 3-4 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% AC Oulu, 25% draw, 49% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HJK Helsinki at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Oulu0%Draw4%HJK Helsinki96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Mads Borchersassist: Leonel Montano
41'
⚽Liam Möllerassist: Mads Borchers
⚽Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoassist: Elias Kallio
48'
Tuomas Kaukua
53'
🔁Joel lotvonenout: Lamine Ghezali
55'
64'
⚽Mads Borchersassist: Leonel Montano
68'
🔁Liam Möllerout: Joona Veteli
🔁Otto Kemppainenout: Adramane Cassama
75'
🔁Markus Arsaloout: Juuso Mäkeläinen
75'
🔁Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoout: Roope Riski
75'
⚽Roope Riskiassist: Rasmus Karjalainen
77'
Mikko Pitkanen
79'
Lamine Ghezali
80'
⚽Mikko Pitkanenassist: Rasmus Karjalainen
84'
86'
⚽Joona Veteli
89'
🔁Pyry Mentuout: Mouhamed Gueye
89'
🔁Santeri Haaralaout: Kaius Simojoki
Juuso Mäkeläinen
90+4'

Match stats — AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

40%Possession60%
14Shots18
4On target6
6Corners6
1.76xG3.44

Goals against chances

AC Oulu3 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
HJK Helsinki4 from 3.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 11L. GhezaliF
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 19J. OmotayoM
Coach: M. Isokangas
HJK Helsinki 4-3-3
  • 1J. ÖstG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 7Alfie CicaleF
Substitutes
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 24E. LeveälahtiD
  • 87N. KroupkinF
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 11M. KirilovM
Coach: J. Rantanen

Form going into AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

AC Oulu

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to KuPS8 October 2026
  • L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
  • L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • W6-0VPS8 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
  • D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
  • W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Ilves31 August 2026

What these results say

  • AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.
  • HJK Helsinki went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4AC Oulu32146124140+148
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

  • 9 August 2026AC Oulu 0–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 11 April 2026HJK Helsinki 0–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 14 March 2026AC Oulu 2–1 HJK HelsinkiLeague Cup
  • 21 August 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 AC OuluSuomen Cup
  • 20 July 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki won 4–3 at AC Oulu. The model had made a win for HJK Helsinki its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mads Borchers 20' for HJK Helsinki, Liam Möller 41' for HJK Helsinki, Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo 48' for AC Oulu, Mads Borchers 64' for HJK Helsinki, Roope Riski 77' for AC Oulu, Mikko Pitkanen 84' for AC Oulu, Joona Veteli 86' for HJK Helsinki. On expected goals it finished 1.76–3.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HJK Helsinki a 11.9% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 16.5% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.5%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is HJK Helsinki's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. AC Oulu win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. HJK Helsinki win49%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.