Valladolid vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Valladolid 5-0 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Valladolid, 30% draw, 29% Albacete — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Valladolid at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valladolid vs Albacete
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 4David TorresD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 24S. JurićM
- 8T. OjedaM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 9Juanmi LatasaF
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 18ClercD
- 3Homam AhmedD
- 16Álex BalboaM
- 17Victor BarberáF
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 20R. DuivenF
- 22K. de RooijF
- 2TrilliD
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 13Diego MariñoG
- 15Fran GámezD
- 24VallejoD
- 22Lluís LópezD
- 21Carlos NevaD
- 17José CorpasM
- 14San BartoloméM
- 6Antonio PachecoM
- 11Víctor ValverdeM
- 10RóberF
- 9Mario SoberónF
- 12Higinio MarínF
- 8Javi VillarM
- 28A. VelillaD
- 19Alex RubioF
- 18Sergio OrtuM
- 44Antonio DavidM
- 4Agus MedinaM
- 1Carlos MarínG
- 40Jota DomingoD
Form going into Valladolid vs Albacete
Valladolid
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
- W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
Albacete
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Eibar3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Castellón6 September 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Albacete
- 24 January 2026Valladolid 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 21 September 2025Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 February 2024Valladolid 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 1 September 2023Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 May 2018Valladolid 3–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Albacete
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valladolid beat Albacete 5–0. The model had made a win for Valladolid its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Ponceau 14' for Valladolid, D. Torres 22' for Valladolid, A. Arnuncio 31' for Valladolid, J. Latasa 37' for Valladolid, A. Arnuncio 54' for Valladolid. On expected goals it finished 2.96–0.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 22.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.2% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.2%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
For Albacete the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 55.6% going in: 47.7% after a win, 55.8% after a draw, 60.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.9%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Valladolid v Albacete has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Valladolid's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Valladolid win41%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Albacete win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Valladolid's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Albacete's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.