12 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

VPS vs Gnistan Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Referee: Dennis Antamo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: VPS 1-0 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% VPS, 26% draw, 41% Gnistan — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gnistan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS95%Draw5%Gnistan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Xavier Odhiamboassist: Casper Holmelund
36'
45'
🔁Artur Atarahout: Joakim Latonen
61'
🔁Danny Pérezout: Sergey Eremenko
61'
🔁Adam Jouhiout: Saku Ylätupa
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Henri Salomaa
64'
🔁Casper Holmelundout: Jonathan Muzinga
64'
🔁Jayden Turfkruierout: Yassin Daoussi
75'
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Simon Lindholm
75'
76'
🔁Edmund Arko-Mensahout: Otto Hannula
85'
🔁Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileyeout: Noah Rossi
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Razak Simpson
87'
87'

Match stats — VPS vs Gnistan

51%Possession49%
11Shots10
3On target4
2Corners3
1.73xG0.61

Goals against chances

VPS1 from 1.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Gnistan0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 2L. ManeD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 20X. OdhiamboM
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 30J. VahteraF
Substitutes
  • 24Y. DaoussiD
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 26Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 29W. SamakéF
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
Coach: J. Nuorela
Gnistan 5-4-1
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 24P. GnanouD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
  • 7A. AtarahM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 11D. PérezM
  • 26R. EremenkoF
Substitutes
  • 23S. YlätupaF
  • 25Noah RossiD
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 10J. LatonenF
  • 95M. JuričkaG
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 14S. EremenkoM
  • 2B. DahlströmD
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti

Form going into VPS vs Gnistan

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
  • L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
  • W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
  • L0-1Lahti31 August 2026

Gnistan

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Inter Turku7 October 2026
  • D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
  • W2-1away to AC Oulu12 September 2026
  • D1-1KuPS8 September 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026

What these results say

  • VPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VPS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gnistan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Gnistan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gnistan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS32117143243-1140
5Gnistan321210105247+546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs Gnistan

  • 27 June 2026Gnistan 1–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 9 May 2026VPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 15 August 2025Gnistan 0–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 18 June 2025VPS 0–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 23 October 2024VPS 0–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: VPS and Gnistan

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VPS beat Gnistan 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Gnistan at 41% and given a win for VPS 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Xavier Odhiambo 36' for VPS. On expected goals it finished 1.73–0.61.

How the call on VPS v Gnistan has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is Gnistan's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. VPS win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Gnistan win41%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.