12 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk Premier League prediction & result

Arena Livyi Bereg, Kyiv
Referee: Mikola Balakin
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Livyi Bereh 1-3 Zorya Luhansk.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 25% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Livyi Bereh at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Livyi Bereh0%Draw1%Zorya Luhansk99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Ivan Nesterenko
40'
Jordan
45+1'
⚽Artem Machelyukassist: S. Bah
🔁Pape Malick Fallout: Wendell Florencio Brito
45'
🔁Vikentii Voloshynout: Diego
45'
64'
🔁Domagoj Jelavićout: Igor Gorbach
🔁Evgen Banadaout: Artem Chelyadin
67'
69'
⚽Igor Gorbachassist: Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
⚽Wendell Florencio Britoassist: Artem Chelyadin
73'
🔁Dmytro Shastalout: Roman Heresh
74'
78'
🔁S. Bahout: Vladlen Yurchenko
78'
🔁Kyrylo Dryshlyukout: Jakov Basic
🔁Nazariy Vorobchakout: Ilya Kvasnytsya
88'
88'
🔁Ivan Nesterenkoout: Anton Glushchenko
88'
🔁Igor Perdutaout: Gabriel Eskinja

Match stats — Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk

42%Possession58%
10Shots21
4On target14
5Corners8

Line-ups

Livyi Bereh 4-2-3-1
  • 12R. ZhmurkoG
  • 2O. SokolovD
  • 97A. YakymivD
  • 13I. KovalenkoD
  • 6Sidney Silva SantosD
  • 44Y. BanadaM
  • 8O. KryvoruchkoM
  • 17N. VorobchakM
  • 15V. VoloshynM
  • 7D. ShastalM
  • 20P. FallF
Substitutes
  • 74D. IgnatenkoG
  • 3I. KotukhaD
  • 4V. BondarenkoD
  • 10DiegoM
  • 25Sergii KosovskyiM
  • 38A. ChelyadinM
  • 90N. Osei BonsuD
  • 11I. KvasnytsyaM
  • 37Roman HereshF
Coach: O. Ryabokon
Zorya Luhansk 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. SaputinG
  • 44I. PerdutaD
  • 55JordanD
  • 77B. KushnirenkoD
  • 39Artem MachelyukD
  • 8K. DryshlyukM
  • 18M. BoykoM
  • 27D. JelavićM
  • 88S. BahM
  • 30I. NesterenkoM
  • 28P. BudkivskyiF
Substitutes
  • 40ÍtaloD
  • 25V. RybakG
  • 4G. EskinjaD
  • 10JuninhoD
  • 5A. JanjićD
  • 23l. KaravashchenkoG
  • 6D. PoparaM
  • 21J. BašićM
  • 80V. YurchenkoM
Coach: V. Skripnik

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Livyi Bereh11164712-59
7Zorya Luhansk125341415-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk

  • 25 April 2025Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Livyi BerehPremier League
  • 27 October 2024Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya LuhanskPremier League

The result against the call

Zorya Luhansk won 3–1 at Livyi Bereh. The model had leaned towards a win for Livyi Bereh at 44% and given a win for Zorya Luhansk 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ivan Nesterenko 34' for Zorya Luhansk, Artem Machelyuk 45+1' for Zorya Luhansk, Igor Gorbach 69' for Zorya Luhansk, Wendell Florencio Brito 73' for Livyi Bereh.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zorya Luhansk a 8.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.6% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Livyi Bereh v Zorya Luhansk has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 31% / 25%: the biggest move is Livyi Bereh's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Livyi Bereh win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Zorya Luhansk win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.