Academico Viseu
vs
Alverca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Academico Viseu 1–0 Alverca
The model makes it 44% Academico Viseu, 29% draw, 27% Alverca — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.48, Alverca 1.04.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Academico Viseu's rating is built from 11 Primeira Liga matches and Alverca's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.
Key facts
- Academico Viseu are 6th on 20 points from 11 games; Alverca are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
- Academico Viseu have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nacional.
- Alverca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Casa Pia.
- Last 3 meetings: Academico Viseu 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 February 2025, ended Academico Viseu 2–2 Alverca.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Academico Viseu vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
Academico Viseu at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Academico Viseu vs Alverca
Academico Viseu
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to Nacional8 November 2026
- W2-1Rio Ave1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Sporting CP25 October 2026
- W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
Alverca
Primeira Liga
- D1-1Casa Pia7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Benfica2 November 2026
- L0-1Arouca24 October 2026
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
What these results say
- Academico Viseu won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Alverca
- 9 February 2025Academico Viseu 2–2 AlvercaSegunda Liga
- 30 August 2024Alverca 0–4 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 30 September 2018Alverca 0–3 Academico ViseuTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Alverca
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis51
- S. Messeguem31
- João Guilherme30
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academico Viseu the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Academico Viseu against 1.04 for Alverca. Academico Viseu's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.07 for Alverca.
How the model reaches 44% for Academico Viseu to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Academico Viseu to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Academico Viseu's ratings add 2 points and Alverca's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Academico Viseu's ratings42%+2
- Alverca's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Academico Viseu at home · Alverca away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Academico Viseu 11, Alverca 11.
Academico Viseu score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Alverca have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Academico Viseu
- at Famalicao6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Arouca11 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
- at SC Braga20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
- at Moreirense27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- vs Casa Pia10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 55%
Alverca
- vs Moreirense7 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 43%
- at Vitória SC13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs GIL Vicente20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 35%
- at Estoril27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
- vs Maritimo10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.