Primeira Liga predictions

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 20:15 UTC Maritimo vs Nacional — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

• 15:30 UTC Moreirense vs Santa Clara — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Santa Clara
• 15:30 UTC Arouca vs Rio Ave — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. One-sided: Arouca
• 18:00 UTC Academico Viseu vs Alverca — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 20:30 UTC Vitória SC vs Estrela — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

• 18:00 UTC GIL Vicente vs Estoril — model 53% / 27% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.70 · 5.00. Edge: GIL Vicente
• 20:30 UTC FC Porto vs Sporting CP — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 8 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 98 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 56% of results.

• Famalicao 1–0 Arouca — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Nacional 1–0 Academico Viseu — the model said 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Alverca 1–1 Casa Pia — the model said 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Sporting CP 1–0 Moreirense — the model said 73% / 16% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Santa Clara 1–2 GIL Vicente — the model said 41% / 33% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Vitória SC 1–2 FC Porto — the model said 16% / 24% / 60%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Estrela 2–3 Benfica — the model said 13% / 18% / 69%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
• Rio Ave 0–1 SC Braga — the model said 19% / 23% / 58%, most likely 1-2: result correct.

Primeira Liga so far

Top of the table

• 1. FC Porto — 33 pts from 11 (11W 0D 0L, goals 27–5)
• 2. Benfica — 28 pts from 11 (9W 1D 1L, goals 30–10)
• 3. Sporting CP — 24 pts from 11 (7W 3D 1L, goals 24–11)
• 4. Santa Clara — 21 pts from 11 (6W 3D 2L, goals 16–8)
• 5. Arouca — 20 pts from 11 (6W 2D 3L, goals 13–8)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 208 matches left: FC Porto 69.3%, Benfica 22.1%, Sporting CP 8.5%.

Leading scorers: V. Pavlidis (Benfica) 11 goals, L. Suárez (Sporting CP) 9 goals, G. Prestianni (Benfica) 7 goals.