1. FC Köln
vs
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Köln 1–2 SV Elversberg
The model makes it 32% 1. FC Köln, 25% draw, 43% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.54, SV Elversberg 1.85.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to SV Elversberg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. 1. FC Köln's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and SV Elversberg's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- 1. FC Köln are 15th on 9 points from 9 games; SV Elversberg are 7th on 13 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Köln are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
- SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund.
- Last 3 meetings: 1. FC Köln 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2025, ended 1. FC Köln 1–0 SV Elversberg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg
Has the model earned this number?
SV Elversberg at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
- L1-2Bayer Leverkusen8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Union Berlin1 November 2026
- D0-0FC Schalke 0424 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Borussia Dortmund7 November 2026
- W4-1FSV Mainz 0530 October 2026
- L0-4away to RB Leipzig24 October 2026
- W4-3FC Augsburg17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
1. FC Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today
SV Elversberg
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg
- 25 January 20251. FC Köln 1–0 SV Elversberg2. Bundesliga
- 10 August 2024SV Elversberg 2–2 1. FC Köln2. Bundesliga
- 24 July 20211. FC Köln 2–1 SV ElversbergFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for 1. FC Köln against 1.85 for SV Elversberg. 1. FC Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.1 for SV Elversberg.
How the model reaches 43% for SV Elversberg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SV Elversberg to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, 1. FC Köln's ratings add 5 points and SV Elversberg's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- 1. FC Köln's ratings37%+5
- SV Elversberg's ratings43%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
1. FC Köln at home · SV Elversberg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
1. FC KölnSV Elversberg
1. FC Köln are 15th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 15th so far); SV Elversberg are 7th after 9 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Köln 9, SV Elversberg 9.
1. FC Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); SV Elversberg have let in 7 there.
SV Elversberg score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Köln
- at FC Augsburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs RB Leipzig12 Dec · Bundesligawin 19%
- at FSV Mainz 0519 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs SC Freiburg9 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
SV Elversberg
- vs VfB Stuttgart6 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- at SC Paderborn 0712 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs Hamburger SV19 Dec · Bundesligawin 53%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim9 Jan · Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.