Moreirense
vs
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Moreirense 0–1 Santa Clara
The model makes it 31% Moreirense, 30% draw, 39% Santa Clara — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.07, Santa Clara 1.29.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Santa Clara: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Moreirense's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Santa Clara's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.
Key facts
- Moreirense are 9th on 14 points from 11 games; Santa Clara are 4th on 21 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
- Moreirense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sporting CP.
- Santa Clara have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to GIL Vicente.
- Last 6 meetings: Moreirense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Santa Clara 2–1 Moreirense.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Moreirense vs Santa Clara
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Clara at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Moreirense vs Santa Clara
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to Sporting CP7 November 2026
- W2-1Estrela31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Estoril25 October 2026
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga
- L1-2GIL Vicente8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Maritimo1 November 2026
- L1-2Benfica26 October 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
What these results say
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Santa Clara
- 22 July 2026Santa Clara 2–1 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2026Moreirense 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Santa Clara 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 9 March 2025Santa Clara 1–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2024Moreirense 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 24 July 2024Santa Clara 4–2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Moreirense and Santa Clara
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Moreirense against 1.29 for Santa Clara. Moreirense's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.88 for Santa Clara.
How the model reaches 39% for Santa Clara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santa Clara to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Moreirense's ratings add 5 points and Santa Clara's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Moreirense's ratings36%+5
- Santa Clara's ratings39%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Moreirense at home · Santa Clara away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Moreirense 11, Santa Clara 11.
Moreirense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Santa Clara have let in 1 there.
Santa Clara score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Moreirense have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Moreirense
- at Alverca7 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- vs Famalicao13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- at Nacional20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- vs Academico Viseu27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- at Rio Ave10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Santa Clara
- vs FC Porto5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- at Estoril12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- vs Vitória SC20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- vs Estrela27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 53%
- at Sporting CP10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.