AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 34% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AD Ceuta FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid
Line-ups
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 26Arick BetancourtD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 3José MatosD
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 19E. SevikyanF
- 8KukiF
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
- 29O. SadikF
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 2Toni AbadD
- 15JoaquínM
- 27U. KonareF
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 34D. MasM
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 12Miguel RubioD
- 4David TorresD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 24S. JurićM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 7Luis ChacónM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 19Adrian ArnuncioM
- 9Juanmi LatasaF
- 17Victor BarberáF
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 18ClercD
- 20R. DuivenF
- 22K. de RooijF
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 2TrilliD
- 32Marcos ParriegoM
- 5Ramón MartínezD
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid
AD Ceuta FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Valladolid
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
- W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cadiz30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Eibar23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid
- 17 January 2026AD Ceuta FC 0–3 ValladolidSegunda División
- 15 August 2025Valladolid 3–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AD Ceuta FC at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Miguel Latasa 53' for Valladolid, Carlos Hernández 90+11' for AD Ceuta FC. Sent off: Alejandro Balboa Bandeira (Valladolid) 87', Omar Sadik (AD Ceuta FC) 90+1'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.