Segunda División predictions

Sunday 15 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00. Edge: Tenerife
• 15:15 UTC Granada CF vs Las Palmas — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Eibar vs Cadiz — model 57% / 25% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.00 · 5.56. Edge: Eibar
• 17:30 UTC Eldense vs Sabadell — model 33% / 33% / 34%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.03 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 16 November — 1 match

• 19:30 UTC Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II — model 45% / 25% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.00 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 19:30 UTC FC Andorra vs Leganes — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Edge: FC Andorra

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Sabadell vs Granada CF — model 38% / 32% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.13 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 15:15 UTC Real Sociedad II vs Cadiz — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Castellón vs Eldense — model 63% / 23% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.35 · 7.14. One-sided: Castellón
• 20:00 UTC Tenerife vs Mallorca — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Edge: Mallorca

Sunday 22 November — 5 matches

• 13:00 UTC Cordoba vs Oviedo — model 43% / 25% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.00 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 15:15 UTC Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Girona vs Eibar — model 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.45 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid — model 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 4.00 · 2.94. Evenly matched
• 20:00 UTC Burgos vs Albacete — model 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.57 · 4.55. Edge: Burgos

Monday 23 November — 1 match

• 19:30 UTC AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria — model 20% / 24% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.17 · 1.79. One-sided: Almeria

Sunday 29 November — 11 matches

• 16:00 UTC Las Palmas vs FC Andorra — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Leganes vs Sabadell — model 31% / 33% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.03 · 2.78. Edge: Sabadell
• 16:00 UTC Eibar vs Burgos — model 44% / 30% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.33 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Granada CF vs AD Ceuta FC — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. One-sided: Granada CF
• 16:00 UTC Oviedo vs Celta de Vigo II — model 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.35 · 4.17. Edge: Oviedo
• 16:00 UTC Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II — model 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.85 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Albacete vs Tenerife — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Almeria vs Sporting Gijon — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: Almeria
• 16:00 UTC Cadiz vs Cordoba — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
• 16:00 UTC Mallorca vs Castellón — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 16:00 UTC Eldense vs Girona — model 26% / 29% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.45 · 2.22. One-sided: Girona

Last round: the model's hits and misses

13–14 November: the model called the result of 2 of 6 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 146 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 47% of results.

• Leganes 3–1 Burgos — the model said 25% / 31% / 44%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Valladolid 0–1 Castellón — the model said 27% / 27% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Real Sociedad II 2–2 Sporting Gijon — the model said 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Almeria 2–1 FC Andorra — the model said 58% / 22% / 20%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• Mallorca 3–3 Cordoba — the model said 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Oviedo 1–2 Girona — the model said 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Segunda División so far

Top of the table

• 1. Almeria — 32 pts from 14 (10W 2D 2L, goals 26–11)
• 2. Castellón — 30 pts from 13 (9W 3D 1L, goals 24–5)
• 3. Girona — 24 pts from 14 (7W 3D 4L, goals 24–13)
• 4. Burgos — 24 pts from 14 (7W 3D 4L, goals 20–17)
• 5. Mallorca — 23 pts from 13 (6W 5D 2L, goals 18–10)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 316 matches left: Castellón 52.3%, Almeria 30.3%, Girona 5.2%.

Leading scorers: Miguel de la Fuente (Almeria) 9 goals, A. Marin (Celta de Vigo II) 8 goals, Enric Gallego (Tenerife) 8 goals.