Las Palmas vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 1-2 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 28% Burgos — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Las Palmas at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Burgos
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 12E. LoiodiceD
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 14Manu FusterM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 40Aidán Pieter Pérez KraaijeveldD
- 19Sandro RamírezF
- 9J. RecobaM
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 29Elías RomeroF
- 42Rachid Saiah BouchaibaD
- 35Adrián SuárezG
- 43Eduard Mohedano SerranoG
- 30I. MedinaF
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 5Marcelo ExpósitoM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 36I. MartinezD
- 17Mario CanteroM
- 18Saúl del CerroM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 20José GrageraM
- 1Bruno IribarneG
- 24S. LencinasM
Form going into Las Palmas vs Burgos
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Burgos
- 7 February 2026Las Palmas 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 7 September 2025Burgos 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 6 February 2023Burgos 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 1 November 2022Las Palmas 0–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 13 February 2022Las Palmas 0–2 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Burgos
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burgos won 2–1 at Las Palmas. The model had leaned towards a win for Las Palmas at 43% and given a win for Burgos 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jesé Rodríguez 37' for Las Palmas, Álex Forés 58' for Burgos, David Gonzalez 90+4' for Burgos.
How the call on Las Palmas v Burgos has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Las Palmas's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Las Palmas win43%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Burgos win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.