Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al Riyadh.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 29% draw, 25% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16E. MendyG
- 5M. SulaimanD
- 46R. HamidouD
- 3IbanezD
- 31S. BalobaidD
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 6V. AtanganaM
- 7TrincaoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 1A. Al SanbiG
- 72S. Al JadanyG
- 2Z. Al HawsawiD
- 30Z. Al JohaniM
- 66N. MasoudM
- 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
- 11M. Al MutairiM
- 9F. Al BuraikanF
- 21A. RadifF
- 82M. BorjanG
- 2S. Al EssaD
- 67M. Al KhaibariD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 12S. HazaziD
- 10T. OkouM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 14H. A. Bahri E.M
- 11H. Al Ali
- 77L. AntunesF
- 97E. FidaG
- 87M. H. TambaktiD
- 5H. MajrashiD
- 13O. Al BoardiD
- 19H. Al ShurafaM
- 16F. Al SobhiM
- 17H. Al RaqwaniF
- 29S. MatarM
- 24A. Al TaleM
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Al-Ahli Jeddah
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
Al Riyadh
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Al Riyadh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 5–0. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Toney (penalty) 16' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, E. Spertsyan 43' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Trincao 45' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney (penalty) 61' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, N. Masoud 87' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 3.46–0.79.
How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Riyadh has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win46%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Al Riyadh win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.