Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Septemvri Sofia, 29% draw, 30% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Septemvri Sofia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Line-ups
- 12V. IvanovG
- 8B. PenchevM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 4M. HristovD
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 29F. HerardF
- 33G. IvanovM
- 19Pedro IgorF
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 24Z. AtanasovM
- 14A. VutovM
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 15P. GospodinovD
- 21N. KrastevG
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 23B. StoichkovF
- 98L. VasilevG
- 81K. HadjiM
- 36M. StoevD
- 4I. GoranovF
- 3S. SanyangD
- 7R. TsonevM
- 12I. YurukovM
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 79M. PetkovF
- 10J. GallegosM
- 99P. BorukovF
- 24M. SmolenskiM
- 17S. MechevF
- 6A. KichukovM
- 90Filip gigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
- 11M. AchkovD
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Septemvri Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
- W1-0CSKA 194823 August 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
Botev Vratsa
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
- W1-0Botev Plovdiv24 August 2026
- L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026
- L0-3Slavia Sofia10 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
What these results say
- Botev Vratsa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
- 10 May 2026Botev Vratsa 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 6 April 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 25 October 2025Botev Vratsa 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 2 May 2025Botev Vratsa 3–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 8 February 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Botev Vratsa
No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Vratsa won 3–2 at Septemvri Sofia. The model had leaned towards a win for Septemvri Sofia at 41% and given a win for Botev Vratsa 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Martin Smolenski 41' for Botev Vratsa, Pedro Igor 53' for Septemvri Sofia, Galin Ivanov 73' for Septemvri Sofia, Filip gigov 86' for Botev Vratsa, Filip gigov 88' for Botev Vratsa.
How the call on Septemvri Sofia v Botev Vratsa has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Septemvri Sofia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Septemvri Sofia win41%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Botev Vratsa win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.