Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Gharafa 0-0 Lusail City.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al-Gharafa, 29% draw, 36% Lusail City — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lusail City at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City
Line-ups
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 4S. SanoD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 29F. DíazM
- 13F. SassiM
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragM
- 8Y. BrahimiM
- 7F. ComanM
- 9F. MagriF
- 49R. FaragallaM
- 90A. HassanF
- 31A. KoneG
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 34M. GamalG
- 96A. OunasM
- 5Mostafa EssamD
- 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
- 1A. ShakouriG
- 2A. PilaliD
- 4F. RussoD
- 6O. EbrahimiD
- 27M. AiashD
- 66A. NematiD
- 7F. ZavoshiM
- 20Naif Al HadhramiM
- 8Khaled MohammedM
- 11H. FirouziM
- 19RodrigoF
- 14K. MansourM
- 5Abdullah Makki Al-KaratlyM
- 96Amir HassanG
- 3Ali MalolahD
- 70Mohamed KhaledF
- 22T. GeralnikM
- 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
- 68A. RashidF
- 10S. JjbrilM
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City
Al-Gharafa
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Al Sadd5 September 2026
Lusail City
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 5 | Lusail City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Lusail City
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi51
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Gharafa and Lusail City drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusail City at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Al-Gharafa v Lusail City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Gharafa's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Al-Gharafa win35%▼ −5
- Draw29%=
- Lusail City win36%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.