Qatar Stars League predictions

Friday 27 November — 6 matches

• 16:00 UTC Al Shahaniya vs Al-Rayyan SC — model 16% / 22% / 62%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.55 · 1.61. One-sided: Al-Rayyan SC
• 16:00 UTC Al Sadd vs Lusail City — model 54% / 21% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.76 · 4.00. Edge: Al Sadd
• 16:00 UTC Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shamal — model 37% / 24% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.17 · 2.56. Tight game · draw in reach
• 16:00 UTC Al Wakrah vs Al-Sailiya — model 59% / 20% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 5.00 · 4.76. One-sided: Al Wakrah
• 16:00 UTC Al-Gharafa vs Al-Arabi SC — model 27% / 27% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.70 · 2.17. Edge: Al-Arabi SC
• 16:00 UTC Al-Duhail SC vs Qatar SC — model 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.55 · 5.88. One-sided: Al-Duhail SC

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 4 of 6 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 42 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 52% of results.

• Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al Ahli Doha — the model said 48% / 24% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Al Wakrah 0–3 Al Shahaniya — the model said 53% / 22% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Al Shamal 5–0 Al-Sailiya — the model said 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al-Duhail SC — the model said 22% / 24% / 54%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
• Lusail City 3–2 Qatar SC — the model said 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Al Sadd 3–4 Al-Rayyan SC — the model said 35% / 24% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result correct.

Qatar Stars League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Al-Rayyan SC — 21 pts from 9 (6W 3D 0L, goals 20–6)
• 2. Al-Duhail SC — 21 pts from 9 (6W 3D 0L, goals 20–8)
• 3. Al Sadd — 18 pts from 9 (6W 0D 3L, goals 34–18)
• 4. Al-Arabi SC — 14 pts from 9 (3W 5D 1L, goals 18–10)
• 5. Lusail City — 12 pts from 9 (3W 3D 3L, goals 13–11)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 12 matches left: Al-Rayyan SC 54.8%, Al-Duhail SC 39.8%, Al Sadd 5.5%.

Leading scorers: Akram Afif (Al Sadd) 8 goals, Roberto Firmino (Al Sadd) 8 goals, Róger Guedes (Al-Rayyan SC) 6 goals.