Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shamal 1-1 Al Wakrah.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Shamal, 27% draw, 35% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Shamal at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah
Line-ups
- 95B. SeckG
- 6Musab KhoderD
- 23Michel TermaniniD
- 4Pablo MaríD
- 2Moufak AwadD
- 28N. BenaïssaM
- 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
- 10Álex ColladoM
- 8Ali AsadM
- 47Fahad WaadM
- 22W. SaïdF
- 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
- 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
- 14Omar AliF
- 15Hussain BahzadD
- 16F. BaisD
- 11B. BounedjahF
- 1Ali MohammedG
- 70Tiago SilvaM
- 45Abdullah El RadyG
- 1Mohammed Al BakriG
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 6Omar Al OsadM
- 8Hamdi FathyM
- 7A. AssalM
- 93A. LaïdouniM
- 75A. ZouhzouhM
- 18Luis AlbertoF
- 28Yousef El KhatibD
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 20Nasser Al YazidiM
- 15Almahdi AliD
- 11R. BerkaneF
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 10Gelson DalaF
- 66Mohamed SimoD
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al Wakrah
Al Shamal
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
Al Wakrah
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al Shamal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Wakrah | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al Wakrah
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh61
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Shamal and Al Wakrah drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Shamal at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pablo Mari 26' for Al Shamal, Aissa Laïdouni 45' for Al Wakrah. Sent off: Baghdad Bounedjah (Al Shamal) 90+9'.
How the call on Al Shamal v Al Wakrah has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Al Shamal's chance of winning, down 18 points.
- Al Shamal win38%▼ −18
- Draw27%▲ +3
- Al Wakrah win35%▲ +15
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.