5 September 2026, 16:15 UTC

Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa Stars League prediction & result

Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Al Sadd 4-1 Al-Gharafa.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Al Sadd, 25% draw, 22% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Sadd at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Sadd99%Draw1%Al-Gharafa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Yusuf Abdurisagassist: Roberto Firmino
5'
⚽Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonelassist: Akram Afif
12'
39'
🔁Dame Traoreout: Florinel Coman
⚽Akram Afifassist: Pedro Miguel
50'
59'
Seydou Sano
🔁Yusuf Abdurisagout: Hassan Al-Haydos
65'
🔁Hashim Aliout: Mohamed Manai
65'
66'
Ferjani Sassi
🔁Pedro Miguelout: Younes El Hannach
76'
🔁Guilherme Torresout: Agustin soria
76'
78'
Fabricio Díaz
82'
⚽Yacine Brahimiassist: Florinel Coman
🔁Akram Afifout: Mostafa Mashaal
85'
87'
🔁Hyun-Soo Jangout: Hassan Aladin
⚽Roberto Firminoassist: Boualem Khoukhi
90+3'

Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa

52%Possession48%
15Shots19
6On target5
4Corners6

Line-ups

Al Sadd 4-2-3-1
  • 22Meshaal BarshamG
  • 5Tarek SalmanD
  • 2Pedro MiguelD
  • 16Boualem KhoukhiD
  • 6Paulo OtávioD
  • 8GuilhermeM
  • 33ClaudinhoM
  • 23Hashim AliM
  • 9Roberto FirminoM
  • 30Akram AfifM
  • 12Y. AbdurisagF
Substitutes
  • 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
  • 18Abdulrahman Al AmeenD
  • 10Hassan Al HaydosF
  • 1Saad Al SheebG
  • 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
  • 3Y. El HannachD
  • 7Mohammed WaadM
  • 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
  • 14Mostafa MeshaalM
Coach: R. Lucescu
Al-Gharafa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  • 4S. SanoD
  • 20Jang Hyun-SooD
  • 6Dame TraoréD
  • 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
  • 18Ayoub Al OuiM
  • 29F. DíazM
  • 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragM
  • 13F. SassiM
  • 8Y. BrahimiM
  • 9F. MagriF
Substitutes
  • 33Chalpan AbdulnasirD
  • 7F. ComanF
  • 49R. FaragallaM
  • 90A. HassanF
  • 31A. KoneG
  • 97A. Nasar MohamedF
  • 34M. GamalG
  • 96A. OunasM
  • 5Mostafa EssamD
Coach: Pedro Martins

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al Sadd96033418+1618
10Al-Gharafa92341115-49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif86
  • Roberto Firmino84
  • Giovani33

Al-Gharafa

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Brahimi51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Sadd beat Al-Gharafa 4–1. The model had made a win for Al Sadd its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yusuf Abdurisag 5' for Al Sadd, Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel 12' for Al Sadd, Akram Afif 50' for Al Sadd, Yacine Brahimi 82' for Al-Gharafa, Roberto Firmino 90+3' for Al Sadd.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.