Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Holstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Holstein Kiel, 29% draw, 30% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Holstein Kiel at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekicD
- 26D. ZecD
- 47J. TolkinD
- 20A. KapralikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 28J. MeffertM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
- 31M. EngelhardtG
- 41L. RothenhagenG
- 5N. MadsenD
- 3N. TakahashiD
- 40L. ParduziD
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 43T. WieseM
- 11G. de RegtF
- 44M. Richter MonserratM
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 6A. MarkhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 22F. BeckerM
- 23M. A. ZomaM
- 19P. ScobelF
- 13R. LisewskiG
- 21G. MasourasD
- 14A. CeresoliD
- 36K. MandicD
- 18R. LubachM
- 16M. SoldicM
- 9S. HaugenF
- 11W. BovingF
- 7R. GhriebF
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
- W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 14 March 2026Holstein Kiel 2–3 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 19 October 20251. FC Nürnberg 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 6 April 2024FC Nurnberg 0–4 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 29 October 2023Holstein Kiel 0–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 15 April 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 9 October 2022FC Nurnberg 2–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Holstein Kiel at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Markhiev 41' for 1. FC Nürnberg, P. Harres 45' for Holstein Kiel, A. Kapralik 50' for Holstein Kiel, P. Scobel 56' for 1. FC Nürnberg. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.84.