5 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Full time2 2

Final score: Holstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Holstein Kiel, 29% draw, 30% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Holstein Kiel at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Holstein Kiel

  • L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
  • D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
  • D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026

1. FC Nürnberg

  • W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
  • W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
  • W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Holstein Kiel503269-33
21. FC Nürnberg5410156+913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

  • 14 March 2026Holstein Kiel 2–3 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 19 October 20251. FC Nürnberg 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 6 April 2024FC Nurnberg 0–4 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 29 October 2023Holstein Kiel 0–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 15 April 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 9 October 2022FC Nurnberg 2–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg

Holstein Kiel

  • P. Harres3 goals2 assists

1. FC Nürnberg

  • M. Zoma5 goals
  • J. Justvan3 goals1 assists
  • P. Scobel3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.