Amed vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Amed, 28% draw, 30% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 7Ermal KrasniqiD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 8Furkan SoyalpM
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 10Samuel BalletM
- 91Dia SabaM
- 74Mohamed KhalilM
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 81Ali Turap BülbülD
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 1Alexander NübelG
- 62Amir MurilloD
- 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 33Rıdvan YılmazD
- 6Salih ÖzcanM
- 17Ernest PokuM
- 15Junior OlaitanM
- 10Orkun KökçüM
- 29İlhan FakılıM
- 28Dušan VlahovićF
- 53Emirhan TopçuD
- 21Fabio MirettiM
- 18Václav ČernýF
- 7Milot RashicaM
- 80Doğan AlemdarG
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 11Kassoum OuattaraD
- 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
- 4Wilfred NdidiM
Form going into Amed vs Beşiktaş
Amed
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026
Beşiktaş
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Kauno Žalgiris27 August 2026
What these results say
- Amed scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Amed and Beşiktaş
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Amed beat Beşiktaş 3–2. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Orban 13' for Amed, D. Saba 22' for Amed, D. Vlahovic 55' for Beşiktaş, F. Soyalp 59' for Amed, O. Kokcu (penalty) 90+8' for Beşiktaş. Sent off: A. Cisse (Amed) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.99.
How the call on Amed v Beşiktaş has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Amed win42%▲ +5
- Draw28%=
- Beşiktaş win30%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.