Süper Lig predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

10:30 UTC Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Gaziantep FK — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Edge: Gençlerbirliği S.K.
13:00 UTC Galatasaray vs Samsunspor — model 78% / 13% / 9%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.28 · 7.69 · 11.11. One-sided: Galatasaray
13:00 UTC Amed vs Rizespor — model 65% / 19% / 16%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.54 · 5.26 · 6.25. One-sided: Amed
16:00 UTC Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe — model 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.57 · 2.04. One-sided: Fenerbahçe

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

10:30 UTC Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe — model 30% / 28% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.57 · 2.38. Edge: Göztepe
13:00 UTC Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş — model 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.57 · 2.04. One-sided: Beşiktaş
13:00 UTC Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor — model 53% / 27% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.70 · 5.00. Edge: Kasımpaşa
16:00 UTC Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor — model 81% / 13% / 6%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.23 · 7.69 · 16.67. One-sided: Trabzonspor

Monday 23 November — 1 match

17:00 UTC Başakşehir vs Çorum FK — model 58% / 21% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.72 · 4.76 · 4.76. Edge: Başakşehir

Friday 27 November — 2 matches

17:00 UTC Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor — model 37% / 32% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.13 · 3.23. Evenly matched
17:00 UTC Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

13:00 UTC Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — model 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.70 · 2.94. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Gaziantep FK vs Amed — model 20% / 22% / 58%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.55 · 1.72. One-sided: Amed

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

10:30 UTC Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched
13:00 UTC Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir — model 15% / 21% / 64%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.67 · 4.76 · 1.56. One-sided: Başakşehir
16:00 UTC Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK — model 75% / 16% / 9%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.33 · 6.25 · 11.11. One-sided: Fenerbahçe

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 8 of 9 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 99 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 62% of results.

Gaziantep FK 0–2 Kasımpaşa — the model said 30% / 28% / 42%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Eyüpspor 0–2 Kocaelispor — the model said 24% / 31% / 45%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Samsunspor 1–0 Konyaspor — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Galatasaray 4–3 Amed — the model said 55% / 22% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Göztepe 1–2 Başakşehir — the model said 40% / 25% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Rizespor 2–1 Erzurumspor FK — the model said 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Çorum FK 0–5 Fenerbahçe — the model said 30% / 23% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Alanyaspor 0–2 Trabzonspor — the model said 21% / 25% / 54%, most likely 0-2: exact scoreline.
Beşiktaş 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — the model said 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0: result correct.

Süper Lig so far

Top of the table

1. Galatasaray — 28 pts from 11 (9W 1D 1L, goals 27–15)
2. Trabzonspor — 25 pts from 11 (8W 1D 2L, goals 26–8)
3. Amed — 23 pts from 11 (7W 2D 2L, goals 28–15)
4. Beşiktaş — 22 pts from 11 (7W 1D 3L, goals 23–12)
5. Kasımpaşa — 20 pts from 11 (5W 5D 1L, goals 17–11)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 207 matches left: Galatasaray 59.1%, Trabzonspor 19.4%, Fenerbahçe 10.6%.

Leading scorers: G. Orban (Amed) 10 goals, Mohamed Salah (Trabzonspor) 9 goals, V. Osimhen (Galatasaray) 9 goals.