Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Erzurumspor FK, 31% draw, 27% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Erzurumspor FK at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 22Mustafa YumluD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 42Elisha OwusuM
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 20Miguel CardosoM
- 10Eren TozluF
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 77Lawrence AgyekumM
- 99Mustafa FettahogluF
- 1Okan KocukG
- 2Josafat MendesD
- 16Strahinja ErakovićD
- 34Gabriele GuarinoD
- 17Logi TomassonD
- 5Celil YükselM
- 4Elliot WattM
- 8Samed OnurM
- 30Saikuba JarjuF
- 18Mohamed BayoF
- 11Emre KılınçF
- 10Tanguy CoulibalyF
- 42Antoine SekongoM
- 20Yalçın KayanM
- 25Bilal BayazitG
- 13Efe Yiğit ÜstünG
- 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
- 3Igor DrapińskiD
- 23Enes AlbakD
- 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
- L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026
Samsunspor
All competitions we cover
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
- D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026
What these results say
- Erzurumspor FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Erzurumspor FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
- 30 January 2023Samsunspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 27 August 2022Erzurumspor FK 2–2 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 19 March 2022Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 23 October 2021Samsunspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 11 February 2018Samsunspor 1–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
The result against the call
Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Erzurumspor FK at 42%. The goal: M. Cardoso 45' for Erzurumspor FK. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.40.
How the call on Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Erzurumspor FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Erzurumspor FK win42%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Samsunspor win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.