Arezzo
vs
Pisa
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Arezzo 1–2 Pisa
The model makes it 28% Arezzo, 26% draw, 46% Pisa — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Arezzo 1.30, Pisa 1.81.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Pisa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Arezzo's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Pisa's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Arezzo are 14th on 11 points from 11 games; Pisa are 8th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Arezzo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Juve Stabia.
- Pisa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sudtirol.
- Last 6 meetings: Arezzo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 June 2019, ended Pisa 1–0 Arezzo.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arezzo vs Pisa
Has the model earned this number?
Pisa at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arezzo vs Pisa
Arezzo
Serie B
- L0-1away to Juve Stabia7 November 2026
- D0-0Ascoli1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese28 October 2026
- L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026
Pisa
Serie B
- D2-2Sudtirol7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Avellino1 November 2026
- D3-3Palermo28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
- W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pisa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arezzo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
Pisa
Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Pisa
- 2 June 2019Pisa 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
- 29 May 2019Arezzo 2–3 PisaSerie C - Girone A
- 23 January 2019Arezzo 1–0 PisaSerie C - Girone A
- 25 September 2018Pisa 0–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone A
- 28 April 2018Arezzo 1–0 PisaSerie C
- 10 December 2017Pisa 2–3 ArezzoSerie C
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Pisa
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello41
- M. Tramoni35
- T. Marras31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arezzo a 0% chance of the title and Pisa 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Arezzo against 1.81 for Pisa. Arezzo's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.56 for Pisa.
How the model reaches 46% for Pisa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pisa to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Arezzo's ratings add 7 points and Pisa's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Arezzo's ratings37%+7
- Pisa's ratings46%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Arezzo at home · Pisa away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Arezzo 11, Pisa 11.
Arezzo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Pisa have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arezzo
- at Modena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 15%
- vs Cesena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Virtus Entella12 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
Pisa
- vs Sampdoria5 Dec · Serie Bwin 55%
- at Carrarese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Ascoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.