Empoli
vs
Hellas Verona
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Empoli 1–2 Hellas Verona
The model makes it 30% Empoli, 27% draw, 43% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Empoli 1.26, Hellas Verona 1.63.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Hellas Verona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Empoli's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Hellas Verona's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Empoli are 19th on 9 points from 11 games; Hellas Verona are 7th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Empoli have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Padova.
- Hellas Verona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mantova.
- Last 6 meetings: Hellas Verona 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2025, ended Empoli 1–2 Hellas Verona.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Empoli vs Hellas Verona
Has the model earned this number?
Hellas Verona at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Empoli vs Hellas Verona
Empoli
Serie B
- D2-2away to Padova7 November 2026
- D2-2Juve Stabia1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Cesena27 October 2026
- L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
Hellas Verona
Serie B
- D0-0away to Mantova7 November 2026
- W3-0Carrarese1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Juve Stabia28 October 2026
- D1-1Pisa25 October 2026
- D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026
What these results say
- Empoli did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Empoli
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
Hellas Verona
Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Hellas Verona
- 25 May 2025Empoli 1–2 Hellas VeronaSerie A
- 8 December 2024Hellas Verona 1–4 EmpoliSerie A
- 13 January 2024Hellas Verona 2–1 EmpoliSerie A
- 19 August 2023Empoli 0–1 Hellas VeronaSerie A
- 28 May 2023Hellas Verona 1–1 EmpoliSerie A
- 31 August 2022Empoli 1–1 Hellas VeronaSerie A
Leading scorers: Empoli and Hellas Verona
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Empoli a 0% chance of the title and Hellas Verona 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Empoli against 1.63 for Hellas Verona. Empoli's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.25 for Hellas Verona.
How the model reaches 43% for Hellas Verona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hellas Verona to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Empoli's ratings add 7 points and Hellas Verona's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Empoli's ratings37%+7
- Hellas Verona's ratings43%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Empoli at home · Hellas Verona away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Empoli 11, Hellas Verona 11.
Empoli score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Hellas Verona have let in 2 there.
Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Empoli have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Empoli
- at Virtus Entella5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Sudtirol8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Avellino12 Dec · Serie Bwin 23%
Hellas Verona
- vs Palermo5 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Avellino8 Dec · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Sudtirol12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.