Fixtures & Predictions
Serie B predictions
30 matches ahead, from 21 November to 28 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Ascoli, 65% against Vicenza Virtus. 5 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 21 November — 10 matches
- 14:00 UTC Sampdoria vs Benevento — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Benevento
- 14:00 UTC Hellas Verona vs Cesena — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Hellas Verona
- 14:00 UTC Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus — model 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.76 · 7.14. One-sided: Ascoli
- 14:00 UTC Empoli vs Pisa — model 34% / 25% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 4.00 · 2.44. Edge: Pisa
- 14:00 UTC Avellino vs Mantova — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Arezzo vs Padova — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Edge: Padova
- 14:00 UTC Modena vs Juve Stabia — model 47% / 29% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.45 · 4.17. Edge: Modena
- 14:00 UTC Sudtirol vs Cremonese — model 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.23 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Carrarese vs Virtus Entella — model 41% / 31% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.23 · 3.57. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Catanzaro vs Palermo — model 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 4.00 · 2.13. Edge: Palermo
Tuesday 24 November — 10 matches
- 14:00 UTC Benevento vs Empoli — model 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.85 · 4.55. Edge: Benevento
- 14:00 UTC Cesena vs Ascoli — model 24% / 30% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.33 · 2.17. One-sided: Ascoli
- 14:00 UTC Cremonese vs Avellino — model 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.45 · 3.57. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Palermo vs Sudtirol — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Palermo
- 14:00 UTC Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona — model 29% / 29% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.45 · 2.38. Edge: Hellas Verona
- 14:00 UTC Pisa vs Modena — model 38% / 26% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.85 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Juve Stabia vs Catanzaro — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Padova vs Sampdoria — model 45% / 30% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.33 · 4.00. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Mantova vs Arezzo — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26. Edge: Mantova
Saturday 28 November — 10 matches
- 14:00 UTC Sampdoria vs Cremonese — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Cremonese
- 14:00 UTC Ascoli vs Virtus Entella — model 57% / 27% / 16%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.75 · 3.70 · 6.25. One-sided: Ascoli
- 14:00 UTC Empoli vs Hellas Verona — model 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.70 · 2.33. Edge: Hellas Verona
- 14:00 UTC Palermo vs Benevento — model 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.85 · 4.35. Edge: Palermo
- 14:00 UTC Arezzo vs Pisa — model 28% / 26% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.85 · 2.17. Edge: Pisa
- 14:00 UTC Modena vs Padova — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76. Edge: Modena
- 14:00 UTC Sudtirol vs Mantova — model 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.23 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Carrarese vs Juve Stabia — model 34% / 32% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.94 · 3.13 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 14:00 UTC Vicenza Virtus vs Cesena — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched
- 14:00 UTC Catanzaro vs Avellino — model 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.70 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
Last round: the model's hits and misses
6–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 10 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 110 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 38% of results.
- Ascoli 1–1 Palermo — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Cesena 1–0 Catanzaro — the model said 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
- Juve Stabia 1–0 Arezzo — the model said 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
- Padova 2–2 Empoli — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Pisa 2–2 Sudtirol — the model said 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Mantova 0–0 Hellas Verona — the model said 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
- Benevento 1–1 Avellino — the model said 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Virtus Entella 0–2 Modena — the model said 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
- Carrarese 0–1 Sampdoria — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Vicenza Virtus 1–4 Cremonese — the model said 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Serie B so far
Top of the table
- 1. Palermo — 27 pts from 11 (8W 3D 0L, goals 25–13)
- 2. Modena — 23 pts from 11 (7W 2D 2L, goals 20–10)
- 3. Ascoli — 20 pts from 11 (5W 5D 1L, goals 17–7)
- 4. Mantova — 19 pts from 11 (5W 4D 2L, goals 15–11)
- 5. Avellino — 16 pts from 11 (4W 4D 3L, goals 16–11)
The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 270 matches left: Palermo 54.8%, Ascoli 20.3%, Modena 13.5%.
Leading scorers: C. Shpendi (Cesena) 8 goals, D. Johnsen (Palermo) 7 goals, A. Belotti (Modena) 7 goals.
Serie B table · Accuracy by competition · Head-to-head records · All competitions