Regular Season - 14 · 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ascoli vs Virtus Entella Serie B prediction

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno

Our model says: Ascoli 1–0 Virtus Entella

The model makes it 57% Ascoli, 27% draw, 16% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).

Expected goals: Ascoli 1.65, Virtus Entella 0.62.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Ascoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ascoli's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Virtus Entella's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

Ascoli are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games; Virtus Entella are 16th on 10 points from 11 games — Serie B.
Ascoli are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Palermo.
Virtus Entella are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Modena.
Last 6 meetings: Virtus Entella 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 January 2025, ended Ascoli 0–1 Virtus Entella.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ascoli vs Virtus Entella

38%

Both teams to score

40%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ascoli win Draw Virtus Entella win

1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%
0–16%

Scores read Ascoli first; the other scorelines share the remaining 25%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ascoli vs Virtus Entella

Ascoli

Serie B

D1-1Palermo6 November 2026
D0-0away to Arezzo1 November 2026
W2-0Sampdoria27 October 2026
W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Virtus Entella

Serie B

L0-2Modena8 November 2026
L0-2away to Sampdoria31 October 2026
D1-1Avellino27 October 2026
L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026

What these results say

Ascoli went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Ascoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
Virtus Entella conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Virtus Entella had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	17	7	+10	20
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	11	14	-3	10

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ascoli

Chance to finish in the top two · 48% today

Win 51%

Draw 42%

Defeat 40%

Virtus Entella

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today

Win 26%

Draw 34%

Defeat 38%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Virtus Entella

12 January 2025Ascoli 0–1 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B
9 September 2024Virtus Entella 2–1 AscoliSerie C - Girone B
6 March 2021Virtus Entella 0–0 AscoliSerie B
22 November 2020Ascoli 1–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
8 March 2020Virtus Entella 3–0 AscoliSerie B
25 October 2019Ascoli 2–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Virtus Entella

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

A. Silipo41
G. Gori32

Virtus Entella

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ascoli a 20.3% chance of the title and Virtus Entella 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ascoli Virtus Entella

0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57

0.93 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.39

1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 0.62

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ascoli the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ascoli against 0.62 for Virtus Entella. Ascoli's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.39 for Virtus Entella.

Ascoli carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.41 for Virtus Entella.

How the model reaches 57% for Ascoli to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ascoli to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Ascoli's ratings add 9 points and Virtus Entella's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 57%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level39%−3
Ascoli's ratings48%+9
Virtus Entella's ratings57%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AscoliModelVirtus Entella

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

67%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

40%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

19%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

38%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AscoliVirtus Entella

11Matches11

5W 5D 1LRecord2W 4D 5L

17 1.5 per gameGoals scored11 1.0 per game

7 0.6 per gameGoals conceded14 1.3 per game

4 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11

3 of 11Failed to score5 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored–

21 1.9 per gameYellow cards25 2.3 per game

0Red cards2

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape3-5-2 9×

Ascoli at home · Virtus Entella away

6Played5

3W 3D 0LRecord2W 1D 2L

9–4Goals for – against6–5

2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AscoliVirtus Entella

Ascoli are 3rd after 11 Serie B matches (between 2nd and 5th so far); Virtus Entella are 16th after 11 (between 9th and 19th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Ascoli 11, Virtus Entella 11.

Ascoli scored 032514

Virtus Entella conceded 322121

Ascoli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Virtus Entella have let in 1 there.

Virtus Entella scored 133203

Ascoli conceded 130311

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Ascoli

at Mantova5 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
vs Juve Stabia8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
at Pisa12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%

Virtus Entella

vs Empoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 41%
at Catanzaro8 Dec · Serie Bwin 28%
vs Arezzo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.