Start
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Start 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
The model makes it 34% Start, 28% draw, 38% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Start 1.30, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Sarpsborg 08 FF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Start's rating is built from 26 Eliteserien matches and Sarpsborg 08 FF's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Start are bottom on 19 points from 26 games; Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 31 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Start have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Rosenborg.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Ham-Kam.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 Start.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Has the model earned this number?
Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Start
Eliteserien
- L1-4away to Rosenborg7 November 2026
- L0-1Lillestrom1 November 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord25 October 2026
- L1-6away to Molde18 October 2026
- L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien
- L0-3away to Ham-Kam8 November 2026
- L2-4Kristiansund BK1 November 2026
- W2-1Aalesund25 October 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
- W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026
What these results say
- Start failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sarpsborg 08 FF had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 19 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 6 April 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 StartEliteserien
- 8 November 2020Start 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 12 July 2020Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 StartEliteserien
- 10 June 2020Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–0 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 7 October 2018Start 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 16 May 2018Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–0 StartEliteserien
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Start against 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.35 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How the model reaches 38% for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Start's ratings add 4 points and Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Start's ratings34%+4
- Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Start at home · Sarpsborg 08 FF away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Start 26, Sarpsborg 08 FF 26.
Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Sarpsborg 08 FF have let in 8 there.
Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Start have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Start
- at Tromso6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 19%
- vs Kristiansund BK13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 38%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- vs Brann6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 32%
- at Bodo/Glimt13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 11%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.