Borac Banja Luka
vs
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Borac Banja Luka 1–0 FK Sarajevo
The model makes it 53% Borac Banja Luka, 27% draw, 20% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Borac Banja Luka 1.62, FK Sarajevo 0.78.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Borac Banja Luka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Borac Banja Luka's rating is built from 48 Bosnian Premier League matches and FK Sarajevo's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Borac Banja Luka are 2nd on 31 points from 12 games; FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 20 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Radnik Bijeljina.
- FK Sarajevo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Zrinjski.
- Last 6 meetings: Borac Banja Luka 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended FK Sarajevo 1–0 Borac Banja Luka.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
Borac Banja Luka at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- W4-1Radnik Bijeljina8 November 2026
- W4-2away to Čelik31 October 2026
- W2-0Sloga Doboj25 October 2026
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- D0-0away to Zrinjski8 November 2026
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka1 November 2026
- W2-0Zeljeznicar Sarajevo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Bijeljina17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
What these results say
- Borac Banja Luka won every one of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Sarajevo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
- FK Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 10 | +17 | 31 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Borac Banja Luka
Chance to win the league · 42% today
FK Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 94% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo
- 6 September 2026FK Sarajevo 1–0 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 3 May 2026FK Sarajevo 0–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 28 February 2026Borac Banja Luka 2–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 8 November 2025FK Sarajevo 1–0 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 24 August 2025Borac Banja Luka 5–1 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 19 April 2025Borac Banja Luka 2–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Borac Banja Luka and FK Sarajevo
Borac Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- L. Juričić62
- A. Roguljić20
- A. Hiroš12
FK Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- R. Caraballo20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Borac Banja Luka a 42.2% chance of the title and FK Sarajevo 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka against 0.78 for FK Sarajevo. Borac Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.26 for FK Sarajevo.
How the model reaches 53% for Borac Banja Luka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Borac Banja Luka to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Borac Banja Luka's ratings add 7 points and FK Sarajevo's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Borac Banja Luka's ratings49%+7
- FK Sarajevo's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Borac Banja Luka at home · FK Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Borac Banja Luka 12, FK Sarajevo 13.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 0 there.
FK Sarajevo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borac Banja Luka
- at Zrinjski2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 28%
- vs Siroki Brijeg5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 72%
FK Sarajevo
- vs Velež2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 56%
- at Sloga Doboj5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 51%
- vs Čelik12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 57%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.