Bosnian Premier League predictions

Saturday 21 November — 5 matches

• 16:00 UTC Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka — model 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.26 · 4.17 · 1.75. One-sided: Borac Banja Luka
• 16:00 UTC FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg — model 55% / 28% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.57 · 5.88. Edge: FK Sarajevo
• 16:00 UTC Radnik Bijeljina vs Velež — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Čelik vs Sloga Doboj — model 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.79 · 3.85 · 5.56. Edge: Čelik
• 16:00 UTC BSK Banja Luka vs Zrinjski — model 21% / 23% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.35 · 1.79. One-sided: Zrinjski

Saturday 28 November — 5 matches

• 16:00 UTC Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski — model 19% / 26% / 55%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.26 · 3.85 · 1.82. One-sided: Zrinjski
• 16:00 UTC Čelik vs BSK Banja Luka — model 42% / 24% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.17 · 2.94. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Borac Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo — model 53% / 27% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.70 · 5.00. Edge: Borac Banja Luka
• 16:00 UTC Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Sloga Doboj vs Radnik Bijeljina — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Radnik Bijeljina

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 5 matches.

• Velež 1–1 Čelik — the model said 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Siroki Brijeg 2–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — the model said 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Sloga Doboj 1–3 BSK Banja Luka — the model said 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Borac Banja Luka 4–1 Radnik Bijeljina — the model said 74% / 16% / 10%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Zrinjski 0–0 FK Sarajevo — the model said 57% / 26% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Bosnian Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Zrinjski — 34 pts from 13 (11W 1D 1L, goals 31–7)
• 2. Borac Banja Luka — 31 pts from 12 (10W 1D 1L, goals 27–10)
• 3. FK Sarajevo — 20 pts from 13 (5W 5D 3L, goals 10–7)
• 4. Siroki Brijeg — 17 pts from 13 (4W 5D 4L, goals 13–14)
• 5. BSK Banja Luka — 16 pts from 13 (4W 4D 5L, goals 20–21)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 116 matches left: Zrinjski 57.6%, Borac Banja Luka 42.2%, FK Sarajevo 0.2%.

Leading scorers: L. Juričić (Borac Banja Luka) 6 goals, A. Ilic (Zrinjski) 3 goals, N. Bilbija (Zrinjski) 3 goals.