11 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Bukovyna vs Polessya Premier League prediction & result

Bukovyna Stadium, Chernivtsi
Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskiy
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Bukovyna 2-2 Polessya.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Bukovyna, 29% draw, 47% Polessya — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Polessya at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bukovyna96%Draw4%Polessya0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Maksym Bragaruassist: Mykyta Kravchenko
26'
Lindon Emerllahu
Vladyslav Pryimak
30'
31'
Giorgi Maisuradze
Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi
32'
⚽Vitaliy Dakhnovskyiassist: Vitaliy Grusha
44'
45'
🔁Oleg Fedorout: Vladyslav Veleten
47'
Ruslan Babenko
⚽Andriy Busko
55'
Oleh·Kozhushko
62'
Vitaliy Grusha
65'
🔁Oleh·Kozhushkoout: Renat Dadaşov
65'
🔁Maksym Zaderakaout: Danylo Kravchuk
65'
66'
🔁Oleksandr Nazarenkoout: Igor Krasnopir
66'
🔁Lindon Emerllahuout: Volodymyr Shepelev
🔁Vitaliy Dakhnovskyiout: Mor Talla Gaye
73'
🔁Vitaliy Grushaout: Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
73'
79'
🔁Mykyta Kravchenkoout: Borys Krushynskyi
🔁Andriy Buskoout: E. Odinaka
79'
84'
🔁Ruslan Babenkoout: Andrusw Araujo
Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
90'
D. Karas
90+2'
Herman Penkov
90+3'
90+3'
⚽Vladyslav Veleten (pen)

Match stats — Bukovyna vs Polessya

46%Possession54%
9Shots15
3On target7
2Corners10

Line-ups

Bukovyna 4-1-4-1
  • 94H. PenkovG
  • 24A. BuskoD
  • 5V. PryymakD
  • 2D. KarasD
  • 95P. StasyukD
  • 44V. VitenchukM
  • 97O. IlyinM
  • 20M. ZaderakaM
  • 25V. GrushaM
  • 11V. DakhnovskyiM
  • 7O. KozhushkoF
Substitutes
  • 21D. KravchukF
  • 9R. DadashovF
  • 77M. KlepačF
  • 17F. BabakM
  • 12Y. PidlepenetsM
  • 6V. TankovskyiM
  • 18E. OdinakaD
  • 4T. SakivD
  • 3M. BezuglyiD
Coach: S. Shishchenko
Polessya 4-1-4-1
  • 1O. KudrykG
  • 31G. MaisuradzeD
  • 44S. ChobotenkoD
  • 5E. SarapiyD
  • 4M. KravchenkoD
  • 8R. BabenkoM
  • 7O. NazarenkoM
  • 14L. EmërllahuM
  • 27O. FedorM
  • 45M. BragaruM
  • 89M. GayduchykF
Substitutes
  • 15B. MykhailichenkoD
  • 95I. KrasnopirF
  • 16I. KrasniqiD
  • 55B. KrushynskyiD
  • 94D. GryshkevychD
  • 10V. VeletenM
  • 18O. AndrievskyiM
  • 19V. ShepelevM
  • 22A. AraujoD
Coach: R. Rotan

Form going into Bukovyna vs Polessya

Bukovyna

No earlier matches on record this season.

Polessya

Premier League

  • W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Bukovyna122731113-213
2Polessya11911258+1728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bukovyna vs Polessya

  • 18 March 2025Polessya 0–0 BukovynaFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 November 2022Bukovyna 1–2 PolessyaPersha Liga
  • 25 September 2022Polessya 2–0 BukovynaPersha Liga
  • 23 October 2019Polessya 2–2 BukovynaDruha Liga - Group A

Leading scorers: Bukovyna and Polessya

Bukovyna

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Polessya

GoalsAssists

  • I. Krasnopir81
  • V. Veleten41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bukovyna and Polessya drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Polessya at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maksym Bragaru 18' for Polessya, Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi 44' for Bukovyna, Andriy Busko 55' for Bukovyna, Vladyslav Veleten (penalty) 90+3' for Polessya.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bukovyna a 12.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.3% after a win, 11.6% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.6%, 1 points lower than before the match.

For Polessya the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 89.5% going in: 92.5% after a win, 87.7% after a draw, 86.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 87.7%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bukovyna v Polessya has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 26% / 30% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 24% / 29% / 47%: the biggest move is Polessya's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bukovyna win24%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Polessya win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.