11 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa
Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Lusitânia Lourosa, 21% draw, 19% Chaves — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lusitânia Lourosa at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lusitânia Lourosa0%Draw5%Chaves95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ricardinho
7'
12'
Tiago Simões
João Santos
30'
44'
⚽Andre Rodriguesassist: Tomás Morais Costa
45+1'
João Valido
🔁Saliou Mandiangout: Micael correia
60'
🔁Arsénio Nunesout: Miguel Teixeira
60'
60'
🔁Tomás Morais Costaout: Marcos André Paulino Maia
69'
🔁Néstor Araujoout: Mamadou Tounkara
69'
🔁Wilson Tavaresout: Gabriel Souza da Silva
69'
🔁Andre Rodriguesout: Pedro Pelágio
Arsénio Nunes
78'
🔁João Santosout: João Silva
79'
🔁Ricardinhoout: Iuri Moreira
80'
80'
🔁Robyn Esajasout: Kiko Pereira
🔁Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreiraout: Daniel Paulo dos Santos
86'
88'
Kiko Pereira
⚽Micael correia
90+5'

Match stats — Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

64%Possession36%
17Shots13
7On target7
8Corners2

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa 4-3-3
  • 29Brian AraújoG
  • 24RicardinhoD
  • 4D. CollardD
  • 22Bruno FariaD
  • 52F. MachadoD
  • 12ArsénioF
  • 20Diogo PauloM
  • 27FabinhoM
  • 19SaliouD
  • 17João SantosF
  • 21PaulitéF
Substitutes
  • 60DanielM
  • 7Micael correiaF
  • 90Iuri MoreiraF
  • 42Guilherme SoaresD
  • 80ManelF
  • 6António MontezD
  • 16Luís RochaD
  • 9João SilvaF
  • 5SilvérioD
Chaves 4-3-3
  • 1João ValidoG
  • 23Léo AlabáD
  • 33Tiago SimõesD
  • 34Ricardo AlvesD
  • 14N. AraújoD
  • 42Aílson TavaresM
  • 19Gilberto GarcíaM
  • 10André RodriguesF
  • 30CostinhaF
  • 18Wilson TavaresF
  • 7R. EsajasD
Substitutes
  • 16D. YearwoodM
  • 13I. VázquezD
  • 29M. TounkaraD
  • 17RobertoF
  • 11Pedro PelágioM
  • 9Marcos MaiaF
  • 5Kiko Vilas BoasD
  • 8João TeixeiraM
  • 88M. GudžulićG
Coach: Vitor Martins

Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026

Chaves

Segunda Liga

  • L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541159+619
17Chaves102261121-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

  • 24 January 2026Chaves 2–2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 16 August 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 2–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 20 October 2024Chaves 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaTaça de Portugal

Leading scorers: Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves

Lusitânia Lourosa

GoalsAssists

  • Mika Borges10

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusitânia Lourosa at 60% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Andre Rodrigues 44' for Chaves, Micael correia 90+5' for Lusitânia Lourosa. Sent off: Arsénio Nunes (Lusitânia Lourosa) 78'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lusitânia Lourosa a 44.6% chance to finish in the top four: 47.3% after a win, 41.0% after a draw, 37.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.0%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

For Chaves the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 63.1% going in: 54.3% after a win, 61.7% after a draw, 65.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.7%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lusitânia Lourosa v Chaves has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 50% / 25% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 60% / 21% / 19%: the biggest move is Lusitânia Lourosa's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Lusitânia Lourosa win60%▲ +10
  2. Draw21%▼ −4
  3. Chaves win19%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.